German Chancellor Friedrich Merz finally did what few German politicians (and no chancellors) dared to do for ten years.
He declared that Syrians no longer had grounds for asylum in Germany.
Bold words in a country that took in the largest number of refugees from the 14-year-long Syrian civil war. Roughly 1.3 million, to be exact, placing enormous burden on German social services, housing, budget, and public security. All due to former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s well-intended, but completely misguided open-door policy, commonly known as “Willkommenskultur”.
A policy Merz promised to review and correct – and by lucky coincidence, the war has just ended, providing grounds for repatriation, or ever forceful expulsion for those who refuse to repatriate voluntarily. Though Syria is still in deep humanitarian crisis, “without these people, rebuilding will not be possible. Those in Germany who then refuse to return to the country can, of course, also be deported in the near future”.
So far, so good – limiting and mitigating the effects of mass immigration has been high on German voters’ priority list for years.
And not just Germans. Anti-immigration protests all over Europe (London, The Hague) prove that people had enough of those, who only take from their country.
Merz’s sudden determination to send all Syrians home strangely coincides with a different political development, though, casting the shadow of doubt on his true motivations.
Thus far, the only party to truly listen to German voters’ concerns was the AfD. A party that continues to surge in opinion polls. The latest (published just days before Merz’s declaration) put AfD and Merz’s CDU head-to-head, with the AfD leading a few points. Forsa predicts 26 percent to the AfD and 24 percent to the CDU, INSA puts the two at 26 and 25 percent, respectively. A remarkable change since the last Bundestag elections in February, when the CDU won 28,5 percent and the AfD only 20,8.
Five of Germany’s sixteen states hold elections next year, among them Saxony-Anhalt, one of the AfD’s strongholds. There, the party polls even better, being predicted to gain anywhere between 30 and 40 percent of the votes.
Just a month ago, in October, Merz issued a daring statement after ruling out cooperation with the AfD (again), “we will now make very clear where the AfD stands in terms of content. We will distance ourselves very clearly and distinctly from them. And above all, it is important that we counter this with successful government work”.
Now, his government seems to copy ideas from the AfD’s list of promises, among them the repatriation of Syrian immigrants.
So far, repatriations go far below the acceptable level: the Socialist government led by Merz’s predecessor Olaf Scholz expelled 28 Afghans, Merz’s coalition this far sent 81 back to Afghanistan. All previous governments failed spectacularly when it came to repatriating immigrants with criminal convictions, let alone those who were innocent.
The complete repatriation (and expulsion) of the one million Syrian migrants would require a radical change of attitude, something the Merz government is yet to show.
The plans so far included in the ‘repatriation offensive’, like free plane tickets and cash payouts as incentives, are unlikely to convince most of them to return home. During the 11 months since the fall of the al-Assad Regime, only about a thousand people left Germany voluntarily through government-assisted programs.
Chancellor Merz not only has to fight with his own coalition partners (the Socialists still oppose mass deportations), but also has to convince German people that his sudden urge to send Syrians back home is not a temporary solution (until the next elections) to counter the rise of the AfD.
