There are moments in history when a country stops, looks around, and quietly says to itself: Perhaps we should have noticed this earlier.
Canada appears to be having had one of those moments some months ago.
Fast forward to today, and this realization has led to handshakes in Beijing and a carefully worded joint communiqué about “strategic dialogue.”
After nearly a decade of diplomatic frostbite, Canada’s prime minister visited China, smiling politely, speaking of cooperation, mutual respect, and the timeless importance of global economic networks.
For years, Canadians acted as though the entire global economy was just Canada and the USA. Indeed, roughly three-quarters of Canada’s exports have gone to the U.S.
Then came an unexpected trade war – and with it the rude awakening that the globe is bigger than the U.S.
Canada’s old approach was to salute and follow every U.S. foreign-policy move and hope for the best.
One notorious example was when Canada arrested Huawei’s CFO Meng Wanzhou in 2018 – at Washington’s request.
The response from Beijing was fast and brutal: China detained two innocent Canadians, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, on spying charges.
That stunt, on the other hand, unleashed a trade storm: Beijing slapped crippling tariffs on canola, pork, and seafood, reminding Canada that moral high ground doesn’t come with a free lunch. Back then, the Trudeau government happily paid the price because it felt Canada safe under American economic and military protectorate.
This new chapter between Canada and China has just started, following with a few months delay the American change of heart.
Suddenly, the idea that 75 percent of exports flowing to one country felt like a strategic vulnerability, especially if everything is dependent on the mood of one man with a social media account. Predictably, President Trump’s tariffs made Ottawa appreciate diversification.
After Trump imposed steel, lumber and dairy tariffs (even quipping that Canada could become the ‘51st state’), Ottawa suddenly started to look around the globe and talk to everyone else.
For decades, talking to China was unfashionable in Canadian political circles – now it’s a viable option. Even though China is still authoritarian and complicated. Neither is it Canada’s twin in political philosophy.
At the same time, it is still the world’s second-largest economy, a critical node in energy, agriculture, manufacturing, technology, and climate transition.
It has waited patiently for a very long time while Ottawa completed the learning curve.
As always, the new chapter arrived wrapped in high-minded language. Official statements now write that Canada and China are “strategic partners from energy to agriculture, to people-to-people ties”.
In practical terms, this means that Ottawa is in dire need of a partner that could fill the aching $3 billion hole in its exports. That leaves no room for moral lectures, only ‘re-engagement’ and ‘adapting to a changing world’.
Once it realized that hard economic realities, people’s deep interest to earn money and live well require diversification, Canada officially joined the long line of countries yearning for ‘strategic autonomy’ – something that this far sounded more like a European hobby.
To be fair, this is not hypocrisy. It is realism.
China refrained from enjoying its ‘I told you’-moment. Beijing’s statements mirror the Canadian: talking about resets and cooperation.
The price that Canada must pay is a different story.
The first fruits of this awakening are that Canada will now let in up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles at a 6.1 percent tariff, instead of Trudeau’s 100 percent barrier. It is a nice catch, because the first invoice will be paid together with U.S. and Canadian car manufactures. The capped number of the EVs could be just a polite first step, first message. Prime Minister Carney unabashedly said Canada needed to ‘learn from innovative partners’ on EVs – translated to plain English, this means ‘we’re outsourcing our car know-how’. Ontario’s premier Doug Ford grumbled about a ‘flood of cheap made-in-China EVs’, but Trump himself gave a thumbs-up, saying ‘that’s what he should be doing’.
Meanwhile, Chinese state media welcomed Carney’s visit as a “new starting point” and urged Ottawa to lift “unreasonable tariff restrictions”. Carney got a pledge to slash China’s canola-seed tariff from about 85 percent to roughly 15 percent, unlocking billions in export opportunities.
The truth is, Canada is just trying to hop onto a train that left long ago.
Leaders from Australia and the UK have already made their visits in China. One headline even quipped Carney “is not the first new leader” to try this dance.
From European perspective, Canada’s move is less shocking than affirming. Many European capitals already have ties with China, discreetly, preferably between trade missions and closed-door summits, because the European Commission’s position was a little bit hectic in the last decade in this matter.
For European leaders, the Canadian example can serve as a reminder to use one’s own diplomatic and commercial networks without first consulting the political weather in Washington. Europe has those networks, the leverage, and decades of experience operating in Beijing, even during periods when doing so was considered unfashionable.
Perhaps the lesson is simply to listen more carefully to those European leaders and industries that already work with China and somehow remain both European and sovereign. Developing this pragmatic trend at the EU level would not be a betrayal of values, but a recognition that global economics rarely waits for perfect alignment.
