Chinese-UK relations have also seen some fluctuations recently, and that’s an understatement.
The relationship has been constantly deteriorating due to several factors, including minuscule issues like Beijing’s support to Moscow, cyber-attacks, espionage, human rights concerns and alike, the more so as London has mostly adapted its China-policy to Washington’s expectations and its “strategic competition”. A stark contrast to the previous situation when the UK’s relations with China were once hailed as the closest of any Western nation.
But change might be in the air. Maybe just in time before things spiralled completely out of control.
Washington has also stepped up efforts to find a way to take one step back, as US national security adviser Jake Sullivan’s recent visit proves, that fits into the (quiet but steady) line of bilateral meetings in various fields, let it be from the China-US Economic Working Group, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin meeting with his counterpart with the aim of resuming military-to-military communications, a meeting of undersecretary for international affairs at the US Department of Treasury Jay Shambaugh, and of course President Biden’s summit with Xi Jinping in 2023.
Just to name a few. The exception being Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit that was called off due to the spy balloon row.
Quite a long list after the “mini-Cold War” of the previous years, that saw many years pass without an American NSA visiting China, not to mention a complete halt in all cabinet-level communications after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.
Now, Sullivan has met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi for five times over the past eighteen months, before his recent trip to Beijing. Some of those meetings were kept in secret until they were actually over, providing blessed secrecy for sensitive talks.
London seems to have followed the lead.
Foreign Secretary David Lammy just had his first visit in Beijing, because “the UK approach to China needs more diplomacy, not less”. He blamed the previous government for the “lack of sufficient contact”. To make up for the time lost, Lammy met both Chinese deputy premier Ding Xuexiang and foreign minister Wang Yi in what he dubbed as “the beginning of a process”.
Of course, this wasn’t the first interaction of London’s relatively new government with its Chinese counterparts – Prime Minister Keir Starmer had a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping just a few weeks ago, agreeing that “the two countries must be able to talk frankly about their disagreements and also pursue closer economic ties and work together on global issues”. The leaders also agreed “to stay in touch”.
In a similar tone, Lammy expressed his view on his press conference that “it is only in dialogue that we can bring about better understanding and change”, even if there are areas where the two parties disagree, think Hong Kong, Taiwan or human rights issues in Xinjiang.
Beijing didn’t hesitate to react, boasting about bilateral relations standing “at a new starting point”. David Lammy’s visit was depicted in Chinese media as “London’s attempt to reset bilateral relations”, pretty much like Starmer’s phone call was presented as something that happened “at the request of the UK”.
It is yet to be seen, how different the next step will be compared to the visit of then-Foreign Secretary James Cleverly about a year ago, that covered the same topics and ended with hauntingly similar press declarations, bragging about the importance of mutual respect and expressing hopes that relations could be stabilized, pragmatic economic cooperation could be started.
So far, nothing proves that any breakthrough is anywhere near in sight, though. Neither was Lammy’s visit accompanied with announcements of big investments or new infrastructure projects. They are not there, yet.
Facing its own economic challenges at home, London is in desperate need for resetting its bilateral ties with the world’s second largest economy, especially in areas such as trade, finance, green development, science and technology
A pragmatic relationship would be probably more useful to the world than the extreme rhetoric that is still heard from some capitals, like Washington, for example. Or what was used by former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who in 2022 declared the end of the “golden era” of relations with China.
But the level of its success will be highly dependent on the progress of US-Chinese relations as the UK has been always following Washington’s strategy.
Thus far, in spite of all their talk about the merits of diplomacy and “responsible management” of bilateral relations, the Biden administration did not (yet) reverse Trump-era restrictions.
In fact, they added a few more to the list (not to mention the sanctions introduced on Chinese firms over their alleged support of the Russian military), in addition to trying to counter China’s growing influence elsewhere in Asia.
But again, as the presidential elections are approaching fast, Beijing’s eyes are on Washington … and Washington’s on Beijing. Tension in the South China Sea is growing, forcing the two to regular meetings, in spite of their “contentious and competitive” relationship, in addition to the hopes that China could use its leverage to stop Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Though the primary goal of the Biden administration might be to avoid any conflict at least until the elections are over, maybe there is also hope for a more sustainable coexistence, even cooperation in fields of mutual interest, like climate change.
As trust between Washington and Beijing has hit rock bottom in the last few years, the road ahead will be long and difficult. The more so if Donald Trump returns to the White House.
It is also true to London’s own ventures into trying to normalize its relations with Beijing. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ upcoming 2025 trip might provide yet another opportunity to avoid a new “Iron Curtain descending”, as Lammy put it.
