The Financial Times’ yearly festival, organized in the lush green gardens of London’s famed Kenwood House boast a wide array of speakers each year. This year’s event brought along even more surprise as the heads of MI6 and CIA held a joint session. Something that was kept secret until the very last moment.
Not so surprisingly, both claimed the rise of China to be “the main intelligence and geopolitical challenge of the century”.
As a strange twist of fate, their appearance coincided with the end of the 2024 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, the latest geopolitical success story for China.
The Forum saw many African heads of states and political heavyweights, 51 in total, all assisting to Chinese President Xi Jinping as he unveiled a $50 billion plan to strengthen ties across various sectors.
These investments, targeting infrastructure, trade, and security, serve as a clear statement of China’s intent to dominate Africa’s modernization drive and proving that China increasingly becomes Africa’s go-to partner while Europe finds itself increasingly sidelined.
The 2024 forum wasn’t just a mere show of economic muscle; but also the latest episode in a much grander geopolitical saga.
President Xi emphasized his country’s intent to build an “all-weather” community with Africa, a subtle nod to a growing relationship that is less about shared history and more about shared futures—futures paved with Chinese-built roads, bridges, and railways.
While many in the West grumble about debt traps, African leaders see tangible results, welcoming China’s pragmatic “no-strings-attached” approach compared to the West’s often paternalistic conditions for aid.
It wasn’t only Xi Jinping who was satisfied with the results.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also expressed his satisfaction, claiming that China’s partnership with Africa was the main pillar of South-South cooperation. As a longstanding and the largest trading partner of Africa, “China’s remarkable record of development – including on eradicating poverty – provides a wealth of experience and expertise” to the African continent, Guterres added.
Interestingly, while African leaders flock to Beijing for these grand spectacles of diplomacy, some critics—like those from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies—point out that African countries often appear as passive players in this relationship. The donor-recipient dynamic remains strong, with China setting much of the agenda.
In a telling twist, Africa, through initiatives like the African Union’s Agenda 2063, has its own lofty aspirations. But in the world of FOCAC, these dreams tend to get reshaped into something that fits more comfortably with China’s Vision 2035—conveniently aligned with China’s rise as a great power. The irony? African countries, despite their numerical advantage, have yet to craft a unified strategy on how to fully leverage China’s economic largesse, instead letting Beijing take the lead.
Military and security cooperation is another growing domain where China is expanding its reach.
China proudly communicated that with more than 32,000 personnel, 80 percent of Chinese peacekeepers were deployed to Africa. Beijing also signed a major military deal with Mali, for training, technology transfers and military equipment. Xi’s promise of military aid and the training of thousands of African personnel is yet another reminder that China’s influence stretches beyond mere dollars and infrastructure—it’s now deeply entrenched in the security apparatus of African states.
China and Mali signed several other treaties with the aim of “raising Sino-Malian relations to a strategic partnership”, as President Xi said. Those cover fields like communication, the “Digital Mali” project, energy and infrastructure. Beijing’s rapprochement with Mali is not the direct consequence of the last months’ events, but those probably didn’t push Mali towards Europe.
The support provided by Ukraine to the separatist Tuareg groups against the mercenaries of Wagner Group might have served Kyiv’s interests in the short run but was also a blow in the face of (the largely unsuccessful) Western and NATO peacekeeping missions, who, for the last decades, tried to keep the exact same Tuareg groups at bay. Even worse, it prompted Mali to break diplomatic ties with Ukraine. Niger followed suit quickly, mainly out of solidarity.
Though it was Russia that used African nations as part of its strategy to exert influence abroad, it seems that China will reap the results of Moscow’s slow withdrawal.
Chinese media described President Xi as a “true friend of Africa,” claiming that Beijing’s relations have reached “new heights” after the China-Africa forum. President Xi and his wife Peng Liyuan welcomed the leaders as they arrived for dinner at the Great Hall of the People. Chinese state media also published several photos of Xi talking with over a dozen of his African counterparts.
During a meeting with Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, President Xi emphasized the need for strong cooperation in the “development of infrastructure, energy, and mineral resources”. Meeting Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa on the same day, Xi vowed to cooperate in “investment, trade, infrastructure, mineral resources” and other areas with Harare. The Chinese president also expressed his support for Zimbabwe amid its struggle against “illegal sanctions” imposed by the United States in response to corruption and human rights violations.
Gabon signed investment agreements worth $4.3 billion with Chinese investors mainly in the public works and energy sectors. It’s the very same Gabon that was one of the closest allies of France and France’s largest trading partner in the Central African region. The same country where French President Emmanuel Macron promised a year ago that the era of French interference in Africa – sometimes derisively termed “Françafrique” – was over.
After a meeting with Chinese Vice President Han Zheng, Nigerian Prime Minister Alhaji Tafawa Balewa declared that Niger was looking forward to enhancing practical cooperation between the two countries in the areas of economy, trade, investment, energy, resources and infrastructure construction. Again, less than a year after French troops were withdraw from the country.
The list doesn’t end here.
Xi Jinping also held talks with his Senegalese counterpart, Bassirou Diomaye Faye and stated that China and Senegal “are friends and partners on the path to national development and revitalization. Over the years, the two sides have carried out cooperation in the spirit of sincerity, friendship, equality, respect and win-win cooperation, and achieved tangible results”.
Just like Niger, Gabon or Mali, Senegal was also an important ally of France in the region. But those times are gone: in May Senegal’s new prime minister has criticized French military presence in the country, also lambasting French (or Western) efforts to promote values that he said “didn’t fit with those held by Senegal and other African countries”, for example LGBTQ rights and monogamy. In the end, France also drastically reduced its military presence in Senegal this year.
While the West, especially France, agonizes over its receding influence, China’s playbook remains simple: build, invest, and cooperate, sans the lectures on governance or human rights. In the ever-pragmatic world of African diplomacy, this seems to be a winning formula. France, having recently seen its foothold in West Africa crumble amidst a series of coups, can only watch as China makes itself indispensable on the continent.
In summary, the 2024 FOCAC summit showcased a China that has no qualms about playing the long game. It remains a matter of debate whether this “win-win” partnership truly benefits Africa in the long run or not, but for now, China seems to have solidified its place as Africa’s most reliable, and least judgmental, global partner.
When Russia launched its full-scale invasion in Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. and its Western allies swiftly moved to build, at least try to do so, a broad international coalition in support of Ukraine and more.
The U.S. and NATO emphasized the need for global unity against Russian aggression and sought to rally as many countries as possible, ignoring the voices claiming that it was not the best idea to push non-Western countries to this direction. On the contrary, U.S. President Joe Biden consistently stressed the importance of this international coalition, noting that it was crucial not only for Ukraine but for the defense of democratic principles worldwide.
Despite the pressure, some nations, particularly in the Global South, chose neutrality or opted not to join sanctions against Russia due to historical ties, economic interests, or diplomatic balancing.
This global resistance to Western pressure not only continues to underscore the attempt by the West, especially the U.S., to isolate Russia diplomatically and militarily, but contributes to African states’ sudden decisions to choose a side.
While Russia might lose some of its sway, the turn of tide might crown the Chinese strategy that was started about two decades ago.
