Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s initiative – under which Ukraine is offering its anti-drone technology expertise to Gulf countries suffering from Iranian attacks in recent weeks in exchange for defence support and strategic partnerships – was indeed an innovative move that led to Kyiv winning the unofficial idea competition in March. In exchange for sharing Ukrainian anti-drone expertise, Kyiv has asked its new Arab partners to provide advanced air defence systems. In addition, Kyiv is also seeking long-term strategic partnerships that can diversify its support base.
Could this idea be a game-changer and help Ukraine win the war with Russia?
Zelenskyy’s Gulf region tour in late March was a masterclass in war diplomacy, the Atlantic Council says adding that, over past four years, Ukraine has emerged as a world leader in drone warfare. ’By moving so nimbly, Zelenskyy secured vital support for the Ukrainian war effort and laid the foundations for potentially game-changing strategic partnerships with the Gulf states. Crucially, he also debunked negative perceptions of his country and enhanced Ukraine’s global standing as a drone warfare superpower.’, the think-tank explains.
At the same time, it is worth looking at Kyiv’s efforts to act as a global security partner from other perspectives as well.
First of all, both critics and supporters point out the irony of a nation facing constant Russian attacks offering to assist in a regional conflict in the Middle East. When all circumstances are taken into account, including the current geopolitical situation, the feasibility of Zelenskyy’s offer is highly debatable.
Second, Zelenskyy’s overplaying the so-called Gulf card could irritate Washington which could undermine Ukraine’s efforts to obtain as many U.S. made Patriot air defence systems as possible. With the new defence deals signed with Gulf countries leaders, Zelenskyy risks losing U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s generous support for Ukraine.
Third, Zelenskyy could ultimately derail the peace process in the Middle East, as his actions could cast doubt on the idea of Russia serving as a potential mediator in the Iran crisis. The reason for that is that Ukrainian President used his visit to publicly accuse Russia of actively helping Iran. He revealed intelligence showing Russian contibution to Iran’s bombing U.S. and allied military bases across the region.
Beyond that, with the newly signed deals, President Zelenskyy may have also offended the interests of defense companies, such as the German giant Rheinmetall. One indication of this is that Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger, in an interview, had diminished the innovative value of Ukraine’s defence know-how, in particular anti-drone technologies. ’It is Ukrainian housewives. (…) They have 3-D printers in the kitchen, and they produce parts for drones. This is not innovation.’, he said.
Despite the fact that Zelenskyy’s trip to the Middle East could be described as highly innovative since he has started to build a new non-Western diplomatic bloc that could reduce Kyiv’s vulnerability, the project’s implementation is still uncertain. Whether Ukrainian assets will actually be deployed in the region and Kyiv will receive defence support from the Gulf countries, remains an open question. Moreover, with its new defence-focused diplomacy in the Middle East, Ukraine is upsetting multiple stakeholders in an unstable and troubled region.
Zelenskyy’s trip to the Middle East may have brought him a short-term diplomatic success, but from a global perspective, it has caused more harm than benefit in terms of peace, both in the Middle East and in Ukraine. Given the dubious feasibility of the initiative, there is little chance that Zelenskyy will win the war against Russia with this move; instead, he risks losing key allies such as the US and Germany.
