While the United States and Ukraine have signed a mutually beneficial Minerals Deal, the European Union is on the verge of committing political and economic suicide by putting Ukraine on a fast track to joining the EU, disregarding neither the long-term interests of the Member States nor the fact that Ukraine itself is not prepared in any respect to become a member of Europe’s elite club as the country’s legal system is not fully in line with EU legislation, the economic situation in Ukraine is disastrously poor due to the war, not to mention the fact that state borders are also unsettled as a result of the ongoing war with Russia, and a significant part of its population has fled abroad to escape the violence. On the top of all this, there is the issue of security which is far from satisfying, put it mildely. More straightforwardly, the bloody war in Ukraine threatens all Europe.
The list of reasons why Ukraine does not meet the conditions for EU membership – all the criteria that have been mandatory for every single candidate country so far throughout the EU’s history – could easily be continued. In the EU, traditionally, there has been no fast-track, no exceptions, no double standards in enlargement policy on the contrary – the entry procedure used to be a rigorous series of tests, with candidates only being allowed to proceed if they had performed with excellence in each of those tests and met all the tough conditions.
Technically, the whole process involves six clusters, which are subdivided into a total of 35 chapters. ’From the technical point of view we can be ready to open two clusters for Ukraine in the first half of the year,’ European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos said in January. Despite having received the legal green light to start negotiating with Brussels, Kyiv has not yet opened the first cluster of negotiations, due to Hungary’s opposition to membership for Ukraine. However, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefanishyna believes that Ukraine will be able to open at least one negotiating cluster before the end of Poland’s presidency of the EU Council which ends in June 2025. Concerning Ukraine’s accession bid the country’s PM, Denys Shmyhal said that, thanks to the legal efforts of the government and parliament, Ukraine is progressing towards European Union membership at the fastest pace ever recorded among candidate countries.
’Ukraine has done its homework, so it is ready for Cluster 1 (Fundamentals) to be open’, Marta Kos happily announced on 20 May, fully in line with the Ukrainian governement officials’ statements. She also added that this would also be a message for Ukraine.
Precedent suggests that accession negotiations in normal circumstances take at least five years to complete. The last enlargement had taken place back in 2013 with Croatia passing the ’final test’ of EU accession at the end of a long procedure.
On a purely political grounds, the Russia-Ukraine war seems to rewrite the decades-old European rules, criteria and standards and this can contribute to Ukraine’s rapid entry into the EU. In the case of Ukraine, a ’screening’ is going on and there is almost no mention of ’meeting requirements’ and any progress in the accession is referred to as ’benchmarks’.
Concerning Ukraine, the bloc’s top officials are apparently unconcerned with simple practical questions such as whether member states’ labour markets are ready for employing millions of Ukrainians once this huge country joins the EU, and how the overburdened European health care system can cope with the new arrivals, or whether farms in member states can withstand the difficulties of crop dumping from Ukraine, not to mention the serious veterinary risks that emerge with a future Ukrainian EU membership.
Experts warn that admitting Ukraine into the EU would fully reshape the bloc’s budgetary structure, given the country would immediately become the largest recipient of EU funds. In addition, despite much reform, Ukraine is still one of the most corrupt countries in the world, also having a number of challenges in the area of rule of law. Additionally, there is every reason to be concerned that Ukrane’s EU membership will also import crime and cross-border criminal activities would spread not only to neighbouring CEE countries but also to Western Europe. All this will be worsened if border controls are lifted.
Despite all these piling ’challenges’, top bureaucrats in Brussels such as Commission President von der Leyen and chief EU diplomat Kaja Kallas, seemed happy to discuss the EU’s latest (18th) sanctions package against Russia with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy which was adopted on 20 May. No need for national opinions, not to mention dissenting voices. According to these influential decision-makers, it does not really matter that Ukraine simply does not meet the criteria in several crucial chapters, membership is being offered as a means of securing long-term stability and anchoring Ukraine to the West.
It should be added that most Europeans are unlikely be aware of the difficulties in building a unanimous consensus in EU that currently does not exist.
On 7 May, von der Leyen made a strong statement in the European Parliament in Strasbourg when she pushed to open all chapters for Ukraine’s EU membership in 2025, claiming that Kyiv’s entry into the Union is ’the strongest security guarantee’ against Russia. It should be noted that Commission President is not alone in this struggle as three countries – Lithuania, Denmark, and Sweden -, has officially launched the Ukraine2EU Program, a new initiative aimed at supporting Ukraine in its EU accession journey. According to the plans, this program will enable Ukraine to achieve its strategic goal of becoming a full EU member in the shortest possible time. Hungarian Viktor Orban’s Patriots in the European Parliament take a very different view on the same issue and see Ukraine as a potential threat to European economies, agriculture and security. That is why they are opposed to Ukraine’s fast-track path to accession.
On the other hand, it also should be emphasised that decision-makers in Brussels – facilitators of Ukraine’s path to the EU -, are also not really concerned with informing the Ukrainian people about the ’challenges’ of EU integration, including the difficulties the Ukrainian people would definitely face if Ukraine joins the bloc.
Partly due to the shortcomings of the EU’s communications, and partly because the Ukrainian leadership in Kyiv paints a wonderfully rosy picture of the future, thus fuelling unrealistic expectations, the Ukrainians have very little information on the implications of their country’s future EU membership. At this point, it should immediately be added that Ukrainian people, citizens of a war-torn country fighting Russia cannot be blamed for anything, since it is not their role and responsibility to eliminate information gaps. In the trenches, they do their best which is defending their fatherland and struggling for their country and their families.
Against this background and, with full respect for the nobility of the Ukrainians’ struggle, we all have a responsibility to explain what awaits them after joining the EU.
The Ukrainians are unlikely to have no idea that big EU corporations will very quickly squeeze Ukrainian businesses out of their own markets and the profits they make by exploiting Ukrainian labour will be taken out of the country, not to mention rising prices. Additionally, Ukrainians are probably unaware of the obligatory admission of migrants. Similarly, no one has yet explained to them how over-regulated the EU is and that access to funds is not automatic, but a lengthy bureaucratic process that may not end successfully. Moreover, Ukraine, now fighting so heroically for its sovereignty, will find its voice lost in joint decision-making as an EU member state.
’We call on European leaders to fast-track Ukraine’s integration and shorten our path to full membership. We call on European businesses to invest in Ukraine as a soon-to-be EU member state. We call on you to invest in the future, a future that will deliver prosperity to the entire European continent.’ – PM Shmychal said.
In response to this statement, it can be stated that, despite Ukrainian government officials claim that Ukraine joining the EU would be beneficial for the bloc itself, instead, the country’s EU membership would largely weaken the EU from within as weakening the EU’s internal standards for the sake of a symbolic gesture serves neither the bloc nor Ukraine. A gesture of solidarity would be enough to show for Kyiv, and granting Ukraine a quick accession is the worst thing that can happen with the us all.
