President Trump’s second-term tariff disputes with Canada and the EU unfolded in overlapping waves from early 2025 through mid-2026, starting with broad “emergency” tariffs in February–March 2025, escalating with higher metal duties and reciprocal tariffs in spring and summer 2025, and then partially resetting after US court rulings and new global tariffs in early 2026.
Until now, anyway.
A quick look at the chronology of the tariff back-and-forts might help to shed light on what’s going on now during the recent spat between Canada and the US. (And why should Europe start to sharpen its blades.)
The US started the first tariff war with Canada on 1 February 2025, imposing 25% tariffs on most Canadian goods and 10% on Canadian energy products, initially set to take effect within days.
But, as always with President Trump, it felt like he was playing poker in reverse.
He always starts with an all-in bet and then plays his cards step by step. Easily done with American economic and military power behind him. With this repeat action, he convinced the world that he is so unpredictable that none of his partners can know how long the bluff will last or where the red line lies. And in doing so, he creates a significant buffer zone for himself, while his opponents sweat over where to place their bets. (
So, on February 3, 2025, the Trump administration paused the blanket tariffs, pushing the effective date to March 4, 2025, while negotiations continued.
March 4, 2025 arrived without an agreement, thus the broad tariffs on Canada took effect.
Canada immediately announced retaliatory 25 percent tariffs on a large basket of U.S. goods.
On March 6, 2025, Trump carved out exceptions for USMCA/CUSMA‑qualifying goods (duty‑free treatment under the trade pact) and lowered the potash tariff from 25 to 10 percent.
Six days later, 25 percent steel and aluminum tariffs (separate from the previous ones) on all partners (including Canada and the EU) began, consequently, Canada and the EU prepared countermeasures.
Relief came on February 20, 2026, when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that several “Liberation Day”/IEEPA‑based emergency tariffs were unlawful, forcing the administration to recalibrate its approach.
During February and March, and in response to the ruling, Trump announced a new temporary 10 percent global tariff, largely exempting CUSMA‑compliant Canadian/Mexican goods but keeping sectoral measures.
The August 22, 2026 tariffs were announced when no new bilateral deal was achieved. The 50 percent tariffs affect certain Canadian goods (about $20 billion in trade) under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930.
Canada’s retaliation scaled alongside these moves, initially targeting tens of billions of U.S. exports and later expanding as U.S. rates rose.
The line of actions started nearly a month later with the EU in 2025 – dotted with threats of withdrawal from the NATO and demands to purchase (or take, in a few extreme cases) Greenland – but followed a remarkably similar pattern.
The EU’s countermeasures were staged: first reinstating suspended 2018/2020 duties on April 1, 2025, then adding new measures on roughly €18B of U.S. goods by mid‑April 2025.
From one point of view, the tariff wars fit perfectly among President Trump’s campaign promises – but they serve other goals, as well. A curtain of smoke and flame.
January 2025 under Trump was packed with highly controversial and legally contentious moves. The president signed dozens of executive orders that triggered lawsuits, market jitters and political firestorms, including issuing mass pardons for roughly 1,500 people charged for attacking the Capitol, ordering to end the birthright citizenship or the infamous “Friday night purge” of inspectors general (when the president fired at least 17 independent watchdogs, prompting accusations of undermining oversight and a “coup”-style narrative). This was also the time when the president withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement, paused foreign aid and tried to block hundreds of billions’ worth of federal aid,
These actions dominated the headlines and drew intense criticism from Democrats, some Republicans, the courts, and US allies.
The pressure on Canada (via tariffs) came immediately afterwards in early February.
The (tariff) war with Canada got a huge publicity in the States: a relatively new phenomenon in the mostly amicable relation of these two neighboring, allied nations.
It added a fresh, juicy political topic after the controversial start of the President.
Fast forward to the summer of 2026, and it’s easy to understand why the smokescreen again.
A largely unsuccessful military campaign against Iran, with the threat of radically reshaping American presence in the Middle East and highlighting the military weakness of the US (and its allies). Deep troubles within the military itself – as the USS Lincoln’s case shows.
The easiest way to show strength at home is to flex its muscles against allies. Because American voters responded well to this power game against allied nations in the first round, it probably makes it seem worthwhile to do it again.
The more so as US midterm elections are around the corner: it’s fairly certain that the second round will begin soon.
With the aim of showing American voters that the US is not losing its international economic power relative to China, that the war against Iran has not caused any shift in the Middle East balance of power – because it can still show its strength toward Canada and the EU.
