If the March 2026 elections truly provide early clues for the 2027 presidential race, then it’s time that France faced the harsh reality: the political landscape is still evolving.
And rural-urban divide is just as persistent in political dynamics as it has been for the last few elections.
The latest mayoral elections show that the shift is not tectonic, but a constant slow motion.
While media highlights the failure of National Rally to capture the major cities like Marseille or Toulon, portraying it as the proof that the “party’s march to power is not unstoppable” – the party is far from losing the elections.
Its gains are small, but fit into its previous trend of scoring steady, persistent gains.
In rural France the National Rally successfully tapped into local economic concerns and dissatisfaction with traditional parties. Their electoral base was extended considerably among rural voters compared to the previous results.
While the National Rally truly failed to secure major cities – save for Nice, France’s fifth largest city, it scored significant victories in smaller and mid-sized towns. Many in the South – in the exact same regions that suffer by the hardest economic pressures and security concerns. One of such picks is Carcassone.
It also multiplied the number of councillors thirteen-fold.
In cities already held by the party, like Perpignan and Fréjus, the party improved vote shares from previous cycles.
Even in places where the NR candidates got eventually defeated – often only because of opponents consolidating against them – their share in votes was higher than in previous elections.
The same long-simmering frustrations (over economic incompetence, cost of living crisis, energy prices, the failure to handle immigration and integration challenges, or crime and drug related violence) slowly build momentum across the country.
Though they eventually lost the race in the second run, National Rally candidates made significant advances in Toulon and Marseille in the first round, even eclipsing the traditional right.
The centre and the left managed to hold on to key cities – including the three biggest metropolises of Paris, Marseille and Lyon. But they also lost a few battles they were predicted to win.
President Macron’s and his party’s candidates lost in Lyon, Nice and Pau – a sign that Macron’s personal unpopularity is affecting even those who are far from the centre of elitist Parisian politics.
And the results cast the long shadow of an intra-left bickering for the years to come. France Unbowed is loud – but the left suffered from its controversies. Socialist candidates who allied themselves with France Unbowed found themselves defeat across the country.
The Greens? Their results mirror the fate of their German counterparts’. The only exception being Lyon, where they secured a narrow victory.
Low voter turnout also played into the hands of the more traditional parties with larger voter bases and greater capacities to mobilize the electorate.
One thing is certain – in 2017, President Macron entered the race with the promise to reshape the country’s political life.
He succeeded in one part – the traditional parties are slowly losing momentum and face the erosion of their electorate.
But Macron didn’t manage to unite the fragmented country – significant regional variations exist parallel to national political trends. Voters prioritize local concerns – and vote for the candidate that addresses those problems.
