With every new development, French politics gets more and more like a Brazilian soap opera. Save for the love story.
After a minor crisis triggered by the resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, barely a few hours after he presented his first cabinet, with that becoming the shortest-serving prime minister in the history of the Fifth Republic, the country has finally a new government, led by … Sébastien Lecornu.
Not that there were too many candidates for the job that’s been tossed around like a hot potato for the last year (Lecornu’s predecessor, François Bayrou was the third prime minister within a year).
Lecornu’s new government, presumably one that has more “new faces” than the previous one that got criticised for the lack of novelty, was appointed as a “mission-driven” one, tasked to “provide France with a budget before the end of the year”.
In reality, this “new” cabinet still mostly includes familiar faces from previous governments, including some with questionable reputation, like Rachida Dati, the scandal-ridden culture minister who’ll go to court next year on corruption charges.
With reappointing Lecornu, Macron is desperately clutching at the last line of straw: the National Assembly is deeply fractured, Macron lacks majority. Even worse, the conservative Les Républicains announced that they were expelling the six party members who agreed to join the government.
Thus, the new government could be ousted by a vote of no confidence basically any time. Or will be forced to seek compromise with parties from the opposition. The much-loathed 2023 pension reform could be the next casualty of Macron’s efforts to cling to power.
The latest opinion polls showed that Macron has hit record lows (a poll by Elabe, published in Les Echos puts his support at 14 percent, one of the lowest approval ratings ever for a French president) – no wonder that dissolving the National Assembly and calling for early legislative elections is a no go for him.
Even if it means prolonging the country’s year of political agony and instability, triggered by Macron’s inexplicable decision to call for snap elections in June 2024: his successive minority governments have collapsed one after the other.
In the surprise 2024 election (and the European Parliamentary elections that preceded it), French voters expressed their desire for change: either to the right (Marine Le Pen, Jordan Bardella and the National Rally) or to the left (France Insoumise), but away from the centrists, anyways. Another poll by Ifop-Fiducial puts the National Rally at 35 percent (more than double of Macron’s own block).
In spite of his own, belligerent words (“the reality is that the President of the Republic should not be able to remain in office if he has been truly disavowed in terms of parliamentary majority”), Macron has repeatedly decided to ignore the voters, hoping that he can miraculously conjure a government out of his hat that will have legitimacy and a real mandate.
At time when Macron’s allies are failing, Lecornu insists that “there’s a majority that can govern”, though he also admits that “it is difficult”.
Criticism is pouring down at Macron from all corners of the political spectrum. The cabinet ministers themselves feel that the situation bears more resemblance to a tragicomedy than to serious politics.
Part of several previous governments since 2017 (including Lecornu Government No. 1.), Agnes Pannier-Runacher, for example renounced her position in the “circus” and will return to the National Assembly instead. But the biggest blow came from Macron’s former protégé, Gabriel Attal, who declared that “I no longer understand the decisions of the president”, saying that Macron’s choices betrayed a “kind of furious pursuit of the maintenance of his power”.
The consequences of the stalemate are dire: France is grappling with a steep deficit, unavoidable reforms (think radical spending cuts, including social security) are stalled.
Lecornu’s main task to pass a budget is an uphill battle with little-to-no backing from the other political parties. France’s public debt stood at 3.346 trillion euros at the end of the first quarter of 2025 – that’s 114 percent of the country’s GDP.
But in order to get that budget approved by the end of the year, his freshly appointed government must present it within a week (they plan to do it as this article goes to press) and then he needs to convince the National Assembly to pass it. Preferably without invoking Article 49.3 – the same trigger that toppled the two previous governments.
It will be a real miracle if Lecornu manages to do it – but at least Macron can keep his gilded office in the Elysée Palace.
