As US President Donald Trump’s newly imposed tariffs caused a market chaos which reached every corner of global finance and economy, he seemed unaffected by the global outcry – he kept going on determined, with a Hollywood smile on his lips. While some of Trump’s aides had suggested that all of it was part of a plan, or just ’the art of the deal’, most of America’s trading partners suggested confusion about Washington’s approach, saying that they really do not know what the Trump administration wants.
In our new post, we seek to find out whether Trump’s ’Liberation Day’ tariffs are, in fact, part of a major plan or all this is just an economic adventure that threatens a trade fiasco and raises the possibility of an imminent risk of a global financial crisis. Is it correct to use the phrase ’economic bullying’ to describe the situation?
Many experts and US administration officials have pointed out that the measures in question, which may seem like a mess from Europe, are part of a grand master plan that ultimately serves the purpose of cementing U.S. economic supremacy in the world, while, on the other hand, can contribute to the EU’s ’growing up’.
When observing the situation with a little distance, it is quite possible that the turmoil – which is kind of a slap in the face for the EU – can and will eventually force Brussels to find the only adequate response, without harming the interests of the EU as a whole and the specific interests of its Member States in terms of economic, trade and political relations with the US.
To successfully manage all this, the Brussels bureaucracy would need to be capable not only of seeing through Trump’s strategy, but also of cheating it with a more clever strategy, a kind of body feint, turning the situation to its own benefit.
This latter example – the need for a tricky body feint -, is not without reason. According to definition, in the area of sports, body feint is a pretended blow or attack at one point in order to distract attention from the point one really intends to attack.
The above use of the expression is inspired by the fact that Trump’s tariff manoeuvres seem to be very close to a martial arts ritual: the one taking the initiative in a fighting game tests the opponent’s capabilities and limits by launching a huge blow unexpectedly, right after the start of the fight; after that he retreats, waiting for the opponent’s reactions. The offensive fighter may not want to keep up this high intensity for the rest of the combat, since he would probably not have the necessary energy to do so, but the first blow should be so overwhelming that the opponent believes that he not only wants to make many more such attacks, but that he is capable of doing so. The attacker does not really pursue an imminent and unconditional takedown, but simply tries to make an overall assessment of the situation to decide further moves that can lead him to victory.
From this perspective, Donald Trump’s tariffs, in fact, are nothing but a game. He’s practicing ’the art of the deal’, as mentioned above, borrowing the words of a presidential aide. While it could be argued whether this is considered polite and accepted in the world of diplomacy, it is fair to say that Trump’s tariffs storm proved to be effective, given the global panic it has caused.
To judge Brussles’ steps well-founded, it is worth briefly mentioning EU reactions to the tariffs:
- On 7 April, Commission trade chief Maroš Šefčovič met EU ministers in Luxembourg to discuss the draft list of countermeasures.
- After Trump’s ’Liberation Day,’ European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reminded the US President that Brussels was ’already finalizing a first package of countermeasures in response to tariffs on steel.’
- On 9 April, when the bloc’s 27 countries gathered to discuss the situation, 26 countries voted in favor of a retaliatory measures by the EU. (Only one Member State, Hungary was against such a decision, saying that ’escalation is not the answer’, adding that ’the only way forward is negotiations, not retaliation’.)
- Despite the fact that the European Commission announced that the EU would prefer to find negotiated outcomes with the US, which would be balanced and mutually beneficial, it added the EU can apply retaliatory tariffs on nearly €21 billion of U.S. products like soybeans, motorcycles and orange juice.
- Trump’s decision to pause the tariffs for 90 days was followed by a sigh of relief in Brussels.
- As a consequence, Brussels also suspended its countermeasures against Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs before they even took effect.
- Now the two sides have 90 days to do a deal.
As for the European leaders’ positions, it is worth highligting that, while Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez argues that the US tariff’s pause can serve as a door to negotiations and deals between countries Germany’s incoming chancellor Friedrich Merz Merz continues to maintain a confrontive tone, warning that ’President Trump’s policies increase the risk that the next financial crisis will come sooner than expected’. As part of efforts to create a win-win situation, Commission President von der Leyen proposed a zero-for-zero deal, the idea of scrapping all industrial tariffs on a mutual basis. It should be added that Merz’s goal is also a new transatlantic free trade agreement with zero tariffs. ’Europe must present a united front against the US and seize the opportunity to move forward with key reforms’, he said.
In addition to the main European positions, a brief explanation of why some of Donald Trump’s moves may appear to be rude and politically incorrect might also be worth mentioning.
Being a typical 20th century real estate tycoon, any negotiation situation for Trump is a game that he must dominate. If you have any doubt about that, just watch the ’The Apprentice’ (2024 film) which examines his early years: according to the critics, it managed to ’capture the essence of the man’. Based not only on his early adventures in real estate business in New York City in the 1970s and 1980s but also on ideologies of the ’Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) movement, it is quite obvious that Trump does not intend to drive either the US or the global economy into bankruptcy in 2025, he just likes to use power tools that have been sidelined or simply forgot in our politically correct times.
Add to this, that while imposing new tariffs, Trump argues that tariffs will boost US manufacturing and protect jobs, but the world economy has been thrown into chaos and prices are expected to rise for consumers. This has nothing to do with ’economic bullying.’
Considering this, on part of the EU, it is key to understand that, in order to negotiate with America’s 47th President, with trade in his DNA, it is vital to accept his rules of the game and, more importantly, to play by those rules. Should Trump find this cat-and-mouse game entertaining enough, he might even be ready to soften the tariffs further.
Anyway, for the sake of European citizens who have high expectations of low prices, it is worth a try to put the traditional diplomatic allures aside and start thinking the way Trump does. EU’s top officials have 90 days to understand ’the art of the deal’ and, to prove that they care about European households. But unless Brussels can change its attitude and adapt to the new circumstances, and eventually, God forbid, it fails in its fight against US tariffs, it should then draw the necessary conclusions.
