Although Italy and Greece have repeatedly warned Brussels that the situation in Libya is becoming a threat to European security, the EU leadership does not seem to be paying much attention to these voices.
It is reasonable to start our analysis with some concrete figures. While overall irregular entries into the EU dropped by 20% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year, crossings from North Africa rose 12% year on year and now account for 39% of total irregular arrivals, EU border control agency Frontex states.
Alarms by Greece and Italy were followed by support from France and Malta
These two EU countries – both heavily exposed to migration – say that, considering that migrant flows from Libya are spiking again, the growing influence of Russia and Türkiye in an unstable North African region including Libya triggers security risks for Europe.
According to Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, Libya is ’an emergency that Europe must address together.’ Unsurprisingly, the Greek government fully shares Rome’s concerns with regard to Libya as it struggles to cope with a surge in arrivals from Libya on the island of Crete. Referring to an emergency situation which requires emergency measures, Athens suspended in early July the processing of asylum applications for those arriving in Greece from North Africa by sea. As part of a vicious circle, the Greek measures have also triggered fears in Italy that more migrants will be pushed into Italian waters.
It is important to note that Greece’s announcement about the stop of processing applications came a day after the EU’s Internal Affairs and Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner and ministers from Italy, Malta and Greece were denied entry to the eastern part of divided Libya and declared PNG by the Benghazi-based government ahead of a scheduled meeting on migration.
Following this incident, and also taking into consideration the basic concerns from Italy and Greece, France also said that Libya is a topic of key relevance adding that for Italy, the question of Libya is, of course, more central in the short term than for France which has a so-called declining military footprint in North and West Africa. Later on, Malta also have raised concerns with the EU about a surge in migration through Libya.
Libya’s strategic cooperation with Türkiye and Russia is a great concern
Besides migratory concerns related to Libya, some moves by Türkiye off the Greek coasts (South of Crete) are also a matter of concern for Greece. According to Greek observations, Türkiye is working with the Libyans to carve up the Mediterranean into maritime zones for energy exploration. According to Athens, this is illegal under international maritime law.
’Russia’s role in Libya continues to expand, using it as the central node in its African strategy,’ Politico reported which sources say that a politically connected smuggling network in Libya was supporting Russia’s strategic efforts, helping Moscow to circumvent sanctions and to weaponize migration. Anyone following the situation at the Belorusian-Polish border can easily come to the conclusion that migration from Libya can be used against the EU in a hybrid war.
In military terms, after losing its stronghold in Syria, Russia undoubtably seeks a new stronghold in the Mediterranean and Libya seems to be an excellent choice for this role as it is a good destination for a replacement naval base, instead of the lost Russian base at Tartus. In addition, experts say that Moscow also wants to install missile systems at a military base in southern Libya.
Has anyone learned certain lessons from the past?
Although European Commission spokesperson admitted that ’the Commision is concerned about the situation in Libya and the recent increase in irregular departures,’ the EU has not taken any major action to prevent a European migration crisis similar to the one caused by political instability in Tunisia a decade ago.
Sadly, we all can easily recall that after 2014, there was a rise in Islamic terrorist incidents in Europe. A number of jihadist attacks have been carried out in Europe. According to experts, the years 2014-2016 saw more people killed by Islamic terrorist attacks in Europe than all previous years combined, and the highest rate of attack plots per year.
Many of these attacks were carried out by Tunisians. These include the terrorist attack in Nice 14 July 2016 carried out by Mohamed Lahouaiej-Bouhlel, killing 86 people. Another example is the case of Anis Amri, who drove a truck into a Christmas market in Berlin, 19 December 2016, killing 12 people. In 2020, Tunisian national Brahim Aouissaoui stabbed and killed three people in an attack in Nice’s Basilica of Notre-Dame. The perpetrator arrived in Europe from Tunisia the month before the attack, first crossing the Mediterranean to Italy and then going to France overland. He became radicalised in 2018. Aouissaoui said the killings were ’legitimate revenge for the West killing innocent Muslims’. He was sentenced to life in prison without parole by a Paris court this February.
Anis Amri’s profile: a lesson to remember now
Amri had arrived in Italy in 2011 along with tens of thousands of other young men who fled Tunisia during the Arab Spring revolutions. In the same year he was arrested due to vandalism and theft. He was sentenced to prison. In 2015, at the end of his jail sentence, authorities made efforts to deport Amri to Tunisia but were not sure he was Tunisian. Instead, he was released and asked to leave the country. His family said he completely changed after the prison years but there is no evidence that he became radicalised in the prison. Amri then travelled to Germany where he applied for asylum. He was granted temporary leave to remain and was registered at an asylum centre in Germany. His asylum request was rejected by the German authorities. It was established that he had used six different names under three different nationalities. In Berlin, he was involved in a violent incident. At the same time, he started to visit the circle of a radical Islamist preacher. At the end of this personal path, he attacked the Christmas market in Berlin, killing 12 innocent people.
To avoid a new migration crisis and subsequent surge of terrorist attacks is EU’s best interest
From the lessons of the situation in Tunisia a decade ago and the severe consequences that hit Europe between 2014-2016, it can be anticipated that unless sufficient measures, not only refugees fleeing a humanitarian crisis will be heading for Europe from Libya, but also weapons, drugs, human trafficking, and extremism, each of which will have a strong negative impact on the EU. In light of this, it is worth considering Greek PM Mitsotakis’ words who said that ’with the suspension of asylum applications from Libya the Greek government is sending a firm message: the route to Greece is closing, and that message is directed at all human traffickers.’
In addition, it also should be stressed that the situation in Libya threatens that, with the growing influence of Russia and Türkiye, the EU’s geopolitical weight in North Africa will continue to weaken, not to mention the risk that Russia is just trying to create a new strategic buffer zone in the same region and can use migration as a tool in a hybrid war.
Although Tunisia could have served as a good lesson for the EU, it appears that the bloc’s political leadership has not yet become determined enough to saving the continent from another migration crisis, this time most likely coming from Libya.
As long as the EU is unwilling to invest more in prevention, despite the fact that Italy, Greece, France and Malta are sounding the alarm, we can only hope that von der Leyen and her fellow bureaucrats in Brussels do not want to wait for another migration crisis and another – this time a Libyan – Anis Amris to appear to wake up from their Sleeping Beauty sleep.
