The picture governments paint of the migration situation in most European countries differs from the reality that locals face in their daily lives. This is particularly the case in France, where municipal elections take place in March when voters in more than 35,000 communes will head to the polls to elect city councils and mayors.
It is well known that the record-breaking migration has been keeping France under considerable social pressure for years, with a strong impact on infrastructure, housing, employment, and public safety. Against this backdrop, voters in the French municipal elections are actually deciding on much more than local issues, as the stakes this time are whether the migration crisis in France can be reversed or, whether it deepens further.
Given the urgency of the situation, the negative impacts of migration, such as the French housing crisis, a surge in violence and perceived decline in public safety, identity-related conflicts, and overcompetition in the labor market, have become issues that cannot be avoided in campaigns for local elections in France.
The cases in Marseille, Paris, Nîmes, Bordeaux, and Saint-Ouen clearly show that the direct social impacts of immigration have become a source for political tension in all major cities and political parties need to address these issues if they wish to avoid becoming marginalized. The surge in violence across France, including suburban riots such as those seen in 2025, has contributed significantly to placing security issues at the forefront of public discourse.
However, migration, no matter what politicians may say, is not merely an ideological issue that allows us to view certain developments from a distant perspective. Among the main contributing factors that strongly influence and amplify voters’ direct perceptions, we must first mention the rapidly increasing pace of segregation in urban areas, which is closely linked to issues of identity conflicts and cultural cohesion. The issue of the availability and quality of public services is also unavoidable when it comes to discussions on increased migration.
According to opinion polls, 72 percent of French people believe the deterioration of public safety and immigration are closely linked. Given this, it is hardly surprising that French voters expect their politicians to offer concrete solutions to this challenge.
Under the current circumstances, the candidates of the far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National or RN) have the best chance of winning the French municipal elections, as they are focusing on the issues of migration and law and order.
Since the deterioration in public safety caused by rampant migration predominantly affects multiethnic metropolises such as Paris and Marseille, it is not surprising that while Paris is the scene of political debates on migration, Marseille has become a key stronghold for the RN. In Marseille, a city of more than 850,000 people, as elsewhere, the far right has tied the uptick in violence and crime to immigration. If the RN wins the elections there, it means that the issue of tackling migration does indeed resonate with the will of voters in large cities. Political commentators believe that an RN win in Marseille would rank among the biggest victories in the history of the French far right. From this perspective, municipal elections in France in March will be truly key.
These days, there is no clear left and right divide in terms of which candidates voters would support in the local elections; instead, a decisive factor in the decision-making process will be the respective parties’ proposals for dealing with mass migration. Nîmes, a city of more than 150,000 people, is a good example in this regard, where communists together with other left-wing parties are making a strong effort to regain control of the city from their right-wing counterparts, with migration and public safety becoming key issues in the campaigns at both sides.
Bearing in mind the example from Nîmes, there is something that the left should consider, something that has long been understood by conservatives, namely, that those areas heavily exposed to migration play a major role in elections given the size of their populations. Since metropolitan areas such as Paris (with 13.2 million people!), Marseille (with 1.9 million people) and Bordeaux (with 1.4 million inhabitants) represent more than 10 percent of the total electorate, these urban areas can have a major impact on nationwide political trends. Some experts even consider the municipal elections a dress rehearsal for the 2027 presidential elections.
Under these circumstances, RN has a good chance to cement its status as France’s predominant political force. At the same time, if left-wing parties do not stop denying that there is a connection between immigration and insecurity and thus fail to respond to the concerns of a massive bloc of voters facing migration-related problems, they are likely to do poorly in the elections, despite short-time political alliances established during the campaign.
