One could be tempted to try to blame this or that political decision for the downfall of the Scholz government. It would be a tough call, though, to chose just one.
Rather, it was a series of mistakes on several fields that led to growing social discontent.
Months of disputes among the governing parties, with occasional leaks to the press just to annoy the others, didn’t help this issue: the three-party coalition ended up being the least popular German government ever. The December confidence vote mirrored these sentiments: Chancellor Scholz lost by a tally of 394-207, with 116 abstaining. A novelty in a country known for its predictable politics and durable coalitions.
The exponential rise of the AfD is just another consequence of these trends, reflecting on German voters’ dissatisfaction with the current political leadership and the blatant ignorance it showed as regards the ordinary people’s lives and hardships.
Alas, the ‘economic engine’ of the continent is pulling along (down?) the rest with it as it staggers from one problem to the other, highlighting all the shortcomings of the previous years, let it be Europe’s dependence on the U.S. or the badly executed green transition.
If anything, Russia’s attack on Ukraine proved that the EU lacks the means to defend itself and is completely depending on Washington when facing outside threats. Would Trump fulfil his promises about NATO, Europe could easily find itself out in the cold with its pants down. While helping Ukraine serves a purpose (keeping the rest of Europe safe), it does seem inevitable in the long run that European countries spend more on defence.
The war on Ukraine led to other, far-reaching consequences, too. It serves as an eye-opener, reminding politicians that the diversification of energy resources cannot be postponed any longer. Here, American LNG (or green energy, for that matter) is just one of the many possibilities and the EU should keep an open mind to other options, too, no matter from where those come.
The abrupt and forced separation from cheap Russian gas caused an energy-crisis that shouldn’t happen again. This would require political will, immediate negotiations with every available seller and eventual agreements in this moment, not when disaster hits again.
For this very same reason, politicians should give a second thought to green transition, as well.
The deadlines set by the previous governments were optimist, at best and irreal in most cases, let it be about phasing out nuclear energy or abandoning fossil fuels. While greening our economies has a clear long-term benefit, ignoring the short- and medium-term challenges (think rising levels of unemployment and exponential rise of living costs) leads to a widening gap within our societies.
Electric vehicles are an important part of green transition (save for the minor issue with their batteries, but hopefully that issue will be sorted out in due course of time). Unfortunately, it became obvious that European automobile industry is not in par with Chinese EVs. And, let’s face it, left to its own devices, it is in no position to effectively enter the competition. If the EU wants to give a chance to its own economy, active intervention is needed to save what can be saved (transformed into a competitive sector) and to help the rest to catch up with their American and Chinese counterparts.
Last, but not least is the elephant in the room.
Migration is a contentious topic, the more so in Germany, where, due to dwindling birth rates, migrant workers are indispensable in keeping the economy going. For some reasons, this seems to cause a mild schizophrenia to some politicians who feel that they need to argue for and against migration at the same time. But it is an undeniable truth that there are many who simply don’t want to integrate into the society that once accepted them with open arms and enthusiasm. Public safety in many German cities has dramatically declined during the last decade, not in the least because illegal migration.
Again, new regulations aimed at curbing illegal migration are a must without which no new German government can be successful. And, whoever the next chancellor will be (chances are high that it will be Friedrich Merz, a veteran politician from the currently opposition CDU), (s)he will have to make sure that those rules are strictly enforced, so the mistake of the Scholz government is not repeated again.
Though Germany is not alone in this boat, but, as snap elections are coming in February, it can serve as a test field for the rest of Europe facing the same issues.
One slight sliver of hope: if Germany schafft es, it can, once again, drive Europe (and the EU) in the right direction. (Starting with France that is also sitting on a sinking boat with another failed government.)
