The European Union—a paragon of unity and diplomacy.
Oh, and let’s not forget the uncanny ability to play follow-the-leader with remarkable finesse.
For years, the EU has championed “strategic autonomy,” a term that, upon closer inspection, often translated to “waiting for Washington’s script.” The past decade has been a masterclass in political ventriloquism, with Europe echoing the directives of its transatlantic ally, all the while maintaining an air of independent thought.
Take, for instance, the U.S. Clean Network initiative.
Launched in 2020, this program aimed to exclude Chinese technology companies, notably Huawei and ZTE, from global 5G networks, citing security concerns.
The U.S. urged, as it has many times in the past, its allies (including those in the EU), to join this initiative which effectively formed a technological blockade on China.
Many European nations, perhaps in fear of some strongly worded correspondence from the other side of the ocean, chose to comply, ignoring Chinese technology companies without so much as a second thought.
But behold! A miraculous change has just happened.
With a more isolationist approach from the U.S. administration, the EU reached an epiphany: perhaps the time has come to pursue independent objectives.
How radical.
European diplomats are trying to rewrite history and to argue that China, India and Latin America are not as frightening as they were, and it was time to expand relationships that were not solely U.S. approved.
Starting with China.
The EU has significant trade relations with China (well, mainly Germany has). In 2023, the bilateral trade on goods had peaked into €739 billion which was only seconded by the USA. These figures also illustrate a great deal of economic interconnectedness.
However, the failure of most European nations to recognize this robust trade dynamic perpetuated by Chinese firms has been masked by dominant politics (that is subservience to the United States).
Then there’s India, the world’s fastest-growing large economy and an increasingly pivotal player on the global stage.
The EU is India’s largest trading partner, accounting for €124 billion worth of trade in goods in 2023, which represents 12.2 percent of India’s trade. This burgeoning relationship holds immense potential, particularly as both parties are engaged in negotiations on a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement, an Investment Protection Agreement, and an Agreement on Geographical Indications.
Embracing this partnership could signal Europe’s commitment to diversifying its economic alliances beyond traditional Western-centric frameworks.
And let’s not overlook Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Collectively, the 33 countries forming the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) are the EU’s fifth-largest trading partner. The EU is LAC’s third-largest trade partner, after the U.S. and China, with total trade in goods amounting to €285.5 billion in 2023 – a 45 percent increase since 2013. Additionally, total trade in services reached €109.5 billion in 2022. The EU has a dense network of Association, Trade, and Political and Cooperation Agreements with LAC nations, indicating a strong political commitment to accelerating and deepening integration with the area.
A major development is the EU-Mercosur Association deal, a planned free trade deal between the EU and Mercosur member countries (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia). The pact, announced in 2019 after 20 years of discussions, aims to establish a free trade zone that will include roughly 800 million people. Once finalized, it would be the largest trade agreement reached by the EU and Mercosur in terms of tariff reduction. The deal promises substantial economic benefits, including saving businesses approximately €4 billion annually through reduced duties and tariffs, and facilitating trade in products such as wine, beef, oranges, and cars.
However, it faces significant opposition from certain EU countries concerned about unfair competition for local farmers and environmental impacts, particularly regarding the Amazon rainforest’s destruction. Then again, the agreement must be ratified by all EU member states and the European Parliament, a process that could take years.
The EU’s recent initiatives to reduce its security dependency on the U.S. further highlight this shift towards autonomy.
The “Readiness 2030” strategy emphasizes acquiring European defense equipment, with incentives for member states to source at least 65% of their defense procurement from European, Norwegian, or Ukrainian suppliers. This plan includes a €150 billion loan to fund defense projects, aiming to strengthen Europe’s defense capabilities and reduce reliance on external powers.
Notably, the strategy proposes excluding U.S., UK, and Turkish companies from the defense fund unless their governments sign defense and security agreements with the EU.
This move underscores Europe’s determination to assert its strategic autonomy in defense matters.
The concept of a truly independent European foreign policy is as ambitious as it is overdue.
Imagine a Europe that builds relationships based on connectivity, not bloc-building—a Europe that engages in dialogue rather than reflexively joining the latest round of sanctions at the behest of external powers. Such a shift would entail making decisions rooted in Europe’s own strategic interests, a notion that, while groundbreaking, is entirely attainable.
Of course, this bold vision is not without its challenges.
Decades of deferring to transatlantic partners have left Europe’s foreign policy apparatus more accustomed to drafting resolutions than to decisive action. However, the EU’s proficiency in producing comprehensive reports and delivering impassioned speeches could serve as a foundation for a more assertive global presence.
The real question is: what does European strategic autonomy truly entail? Is it a commitment to engage with global powers like China, India, and Latin America without awaiting external approval? Or is it merely a rebranding exercise, with policy decisions continuing to be influenced by more “decisive” allies?
One thing is certain: if Europe aspires to be taken seriously on the global stage, it must transition from the role of observer.
