It takes only one bold statement to put you back in the centre of attention.
Former Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz knows this very well. Probably that’s why he ignited a continent-wide debate with a blunt assessment (shared by many, but rarely acknowledged, at least not openly, by politicians).
Europe’s mainstream parties have helped to far-right parties to raise to power by ignoring voters’ anxieties over migration and security.
Kurz told this during an interview with Bild, arguing that Angela Merkel’s 2015 decision to open the borders was not just a German misstep but a continental turning point. ‘Without the wrong migration policy since 2015, there would not be such a strong AfD in Germany. The failed migration policy is the guarantee that the AfD will continue to grow,’ he declared.
The EU’s New Pact on Migration and Asylum, adopted in 2024, also reflects this rightward shift. It mandates biometric data collection for migrants as young as six and expands detention centers criticized as “prison-like” by human rights groups.
Kurz’s critique extends beyond Germany.
He framed the AfD’s rise—now polling at 20% ahead of Germany’s February 23 election—as emblematic of a broader crisis. From France’s National Rally to Sweden’s Democrats, far-right parties are capitalizing on voter disillusionment with centrist governance. ‘When you ignore the people, they will find someone who listens’, Kurz warned.
At the heart of Kurz’s argument is the admittance over a million refugees, which he claims created a ‘negative domino effect’ across Europe, from France to Italy and Sweden. As Austria’s foreign minister during the crisis, Kurz spearheaded the closure of the Balkan migration route—a move he credits with reversing migrant flows.
The fallout from Merkel’s policies is stark.
Last week’s knife attack in Aschaffenburg, that fits into the line of several similar crimes, allegedly by a rejected Afghan asylum-seeker, reignited debates over border security and exposed fissures within Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
CDU leader Friedrich Merz, scrambling to outflank the AfD, pushed a nonbinding motion to tighten border controls, but it passed only with AfD support. The move shattered Germany’s post-war “firewall” against far-right collaboration, drawing rare criticism from Merkel herself: ‘You have broken this basic consensus of our republic’.
Europe’s centrist parties are seemingly trapped in a lose-lose scenario.
Adopt far-right rhetoric, and voters flock to the ‘original’ extremists; or cling to the status quo, and risk irrelevance.
Merz’s gambit exemplified this bind: while his migration crackdown was aimed at blunting the AfD’s appeal, it has alienated moderates and triggered protests. Support for the CDU/CSU bloc dropped by 3 percent after the vote, while the AfD gained ground.
But Sebastian Kurz insists there’s a third way.
‘Conservative parties must address root fears—migration, security, identity—without becoming caricatures of the far right’, he told to Politico earlier. He defended Merz’s border motion, ‘a politician should do what is right and not constantly worry about who supports or opposes it’, adding, ‘the right-wing parties are always strongest when conservative parties fail to implement their policies consistently’.
His 2017 electoral victory in Austria, achieved by combining fiscal conservatism with border closures, remains his template. Urging Germany to follow the lead, because ‘If Germany takes the lead [on stricter policies], other European nations will follow’, he told to Bild.
Yet critics note his coalition with the FPÖ from 2017–2019 inadvertently legitimized the far right. Today, the FPÖ leads polls in Austria, poised to govern for the first time. In Austria, the FPÖ’s resurgence has eroded trust in institutions, with polls showing voters resigned to corruption as ‘just politics’.
Sebastian Kurz’s warning is a mirror held up to Europe’s mainstream: The far right’s strength is not inevitable but a consequence of systemic neglect. As Germany’s election looms, the CDU’s internal chaos and Merz’s Faustian bargains reveal a party at odds with itself.
The EU now faces a defining choice: Will it balance security with humanity, or let fear cement the far right’s grip? For Kurz, the answer is unambiguous, ‘If you really want right-wing parties to grow without limits, then you should continue ignoring the legitimate concerns of a large part of the population’.
