After what seemed to be a deadlock for days, would-be German coalition partners CDU/CSU and SPD took a tentative step forward with agreeing on a harsh(-ish) crackdown on migration.
Well, at least in the cross-party working groups.
The new package (if accepted) contains a wide range of measures aimed at curbing immigration, including (for example) a rise in detention capacity for migrants awaiting deportation, provisions facilitating the deportation of migrants with criminal convictions, a two-year freeze on family reunifications and an expansion of the list of ‘safe’ countries.
So far, so good.
If adopted, the new policies would mark a radical shift to the right on migration.
Unfortunately, it might be too little, too late.
A radical shift, it might be, but still not meeting the demands of a large portion of the population. Not only those who voted for the AfD, but even Merz’s own voters face the dire reality: some parts of the CDU/CSU plan are unacceptable for the SPD (like asylum processing centres in third countries).
Defence spending is yet another thorny issue to tackle, along with Merz’s planned reforms in
Though a historic bill to amend the Grundgesetz (the German Constitution) for boosting infrastructure and defence spending (dubbed, surprise ‘infrastructure and defence package’) has been introduced by the CDU/CSU and the SPD and the approval of the Bundesrat has been granted, the package is not without its own set of problems.
Defence spending above 1 percent of GDP is exempt from the ‘Schuldenbremse’, a special EUR500 billion fund will be established, dedicated to public infrastructure funding and so on. Even the 16 federal states will be allowed to borrow up to 0.35 percent of their GDP annually – which doesn’t seem much, but since it was banned until now, still could count as a big step. The various elements within the package add up to a whopping 1 trillion euros.
It is less clear from where the money would come, though. Experts and economists have warned that the country would need serious structural overhauls for the spending package to boost growth without causing inflation. The necessary steps include reducing social spending and ensuring the availability of skilled workers.
A quick reminder: the latter was traditionally solved by consecutive German governments by inviting more immigrants to the country, not reducing their numbers.
In fact, one big, poisoned apple during the talks on the future migration policy was that the SDP wanted to ensure the yearly import of about half a million people and were against the proposals to cut benefits for asylum seekers. So far, there wasn’t too much said about these in the freshly adopted migration package.
All in all, there is a high risk that the steps will lead to a decline in the standard of living of the German population, especially for the younger generations and the vulnerable social groups, maybe even fastening emigration from the country.
No wonder that coalition negotiations are progressing slowly.
The SPD, still digesting its dismal election results, is acting like the cross of a whining toddler and a grumpy old man, insisting that coalition negotiations be conducted on ‘equal footing’ and is driving a hard bargain that serves more its own short-sighted interests than the voters.
Thus, as long as Merz insists on keeping the AfD behind the so-called ‘firewall’ (Brandmauer), it needs to make painful concessions to the SPD that is well aware of its indispensable position.
Not surprisingly, that latest polls have shown that at least 5 percent of the electorate would vote differently now: AfD’s popularity grew further, reaching 23 percent. A poll taken by ZDF shows that 73 percent felt deceived by Merz (including 44 percent of his own voters). The SPD has also lost about 2 percent.
And the trend will probably continue if the wannabe coalition ignores the demands of a large swath of the electorate.
Unfortunately, Germany’s domestic issues are not quite ‘only that’. As the EU braces for a world with Trump, it would need a Germany capable to manage its own issues, one that is not bogged down by arguments within the governing coalition (the continent got a sampler of it during the last three years) to ensure that the enormous amounts earmarked for the ReArm Europe/Readiness 2030 are spent wisely.
