There has been some outstanding speeches in history which not only described but also predicted developments of European security for decades. One of them was Winston Churchill’s historic ’Iron Curtain speech’ given at Westminster College in Fulton, Missouri, on 5 March 1946. French President Emmanuel Macron’s almost two hours long speech at the Sorbonne University in Paris in April 2024 focused on the imminent need for Europe to be stronger and not a U.S. vassal, also seems to be a grand security vision for all Europe.
With Trump’s re-election, Macron’s vision can gain traction in Europe
Making Europe stronger and less dependent on U.S. when it comes to defence issues has been a long-time narrative by Macron. He developed the concept of European sovereignty in his Sorbonne speech back in 2017. From this time on, he calls for Europe’s self-reliance in defense, which has received support from a number of European countries such as Belgium, the Netherlands, Hungary and some others but has been opposed by the Nordic and Baltic states which would be happy to see more U.S. troops in Europe.
The war in Ukraine has not only exposed the EU’s weaknesses in defence, but has also raised the questions of ’should Ukraine become part of the EU and NATO?’ The Russian aggression in Ukraine showed that there is an urgent need to build a broader consensus for the European defense and security because traditional European approach of swimming with the tide will no longer be enough.
As Macron’s unsuccessful domestic politics pushed him to increased involvement in international affairs including the issue of Ukraine, paradoxically, this was what helped him to recognise just in time the arrival of a new era and the need to do more for European security. The U.S. election results have also been a good indicator for him. Given the uncertainty concerning the future of European defence, Macron’s vision can gain further traction.
With Trump’s return to White House, the new European awakening is just around the corner.
Early speculations on Trump’s future stances
’There is nothing but bad news for Europe in Donald Trump’s US election victory. The only question is just how bad it will get. Europeans stand to suffer strategically, economically and politically from his “America first” policies, as well as from his unpredictability and transactional approach to global affairs.’, The Guardian published the opinion of a foreign policy expert at the European Policy Centre.
’Trump’s supporters say his tough approach in his first term shocked European allies into finally increasing defence spending – and that he is right to question why American taxpayers should go on subsidising the security of wealthy European countries that free-ride on US protection. Fiona Hill, his former White House Russia adviser, told me Trump simply did not understand the value of alliances or allies. His approach to security is purely transactional. The impact of a second Trump presidency on Europe’s internal politics may be just as damaging as on trade and international relations.’, the essay says.
Trump’s former national security advisor between 2018 and 2019 John Bolton believes that Trump’s foreign policy stance was likely to be far more radical during his second term than the first, saying: ’The odds that he will withdraw from NATO are very high.’
It would be pointless to continue with additional quotes, as the above comments perfectly cover the pessimistic forecasts concerning Trump’s future approach to Europe which flooded the mainstream media and were also dominant in discourse all across Europe immediately after his election victory.
Is Trump really that bad for Europe?
To stay with the topic of defence, one question should be raised, namely, ’would Trump’s return really be that disastrous for Europe?’
To understand the situation, three major interrelated circumstances should thoroughly be examined. First, the U.S. has been the guarantor of European security for decades. Second, as mentioned above, Trump has been critical of the NATO and has even been rumored to favor U.S. withdrawal; he is likely to continue on this track. Third, Trump has repeatedly claimed he would end the war in Ukraine.
As the share of GDP allocated by each country to defence perfectly describes how deeply Europe is dependent on U.S. in this sphere, it is worth citing some figures. Statistics from NATO show that in 2023, only nine European countries – Denmark, Hungary, Slovakia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Greece, and Poland – met the 2% GDP defence spending target. In contrast, the three largest European economies – Germany, France, and Italy – fell short of this benchmark, while the U.S. allocated 3.2% of its GDP to defence, surpassed only by Poland.
To be fair, it also should be noted that, in September, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius proposed increasing defence spending to between 3% and 3.5% of Germany’s GDP.
As for France, there has been an expectation of reaching NATO’s target of spending 2% of GDP on defence in 2024, moreover, the defence commitments for the period between 2025 and 2029, will allow French defence expenditures to surpass 2% of GDP.
As you can see, the defence situation in Europe is far from ideal but there is a firm will to improve it – France, undoubtably, wants to be the first among those who will take part in building Europe’s defence capabilities. Given his vision for Europe’s strategic autonomy, including plans to bolster European defense production, not surprisingly, Emmanuel Macron was among the first leaders who warmly welcomed Donald Trump back to the White House, stating that he was ready to work together with him.
Right after this message on X, Macron said he had spoken to the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz about the U.S. election and said that they would work toward a ’more united, stronger and more sovereign Europe in the new context.’ It should be noted that, with this step, he not only succeeded in avoiding speculations about the traditional Franco-German rivalry in Europe, but also brilliantly dispelled doubts that his idea on building European defence sovereignty will lack German support.
After the German governing coalition has collapsed in early November, in the absence of any other viable initiative, Macron’s chances of turning his vision into reality have been increased and the prospect of his plan being the engine of European defence sovereignty seems to be at arms reach.
Building European defence
As European defense industry remains highly nationalized and segmented, we can have no illusions that defence contractors from a few countries will play a key role in implementing a new European defence vision.
According to Euronews reportings, after Trump’s victory, an increase was detected at European defence stocks: Italian defence contractor Leonardo SpA’s stock has jumped 17% since U.S. election, with German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall AG climbing 22%, and Hensoldt AG, a German defence sensor specialist, rallying 18%.
At this point, it is recommended to take a brief look at the shares of some European defence companies in the context of the war in Ukraine. According to Reuters, shares in Germany’s Rheinmetall, Sweden’s Saab, and Italy’s Leonardo have risen 230-360% since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. France’s Thales and the UK’s BAE Systems are up 70 and 100%, respectively over the same period.
It is not hard to see that, with his intention to stop the war in Ukraine, Trump can put a swift end to this growth. Analysts estimate a Ukraine ceasefire could trigger significant declines in defence stocks, and this is where Macron has an exceptional opportunity to put his idea on European strategic autonomy into the spotlight. The current uncertain situation in Germany may contribute to his success in this struggle. As defence contractors across Europe are already positioning themselves for potential increase in orders and they are preparing for increased demand, it is easy to predict that the winners in an upcoming new era will be French, not German defence companies. Europe has to be able to do more to defend itself, as well as protect its defense industries, French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu said.
Trump, ultimately, can bring peace and strategic sovereignty for Europe
As the world faces the prospects of a less predictable geopolitical situation, it has become evident that things in Europe have to change, otherwise its vulnerability can easily become irreversible. It is very likely that Europe cannot fully replace the U.S. with its own production but, with implementing Macron’s vision, it will be able to significantly reduce its dependence from America and, achieve strategic autonomy in the long term.
’As Trump’s return to power shakes up transatlantic relations, European nations and defence firms alike are bracing for a new era in defence spending – one where Europe pays, but also stands on its own two feet.’ – Euronews reported.
To this new reality, add the possibility and hope that Trump will really succeed in stopping the war in Ukraine within months.
Taking all these options into account, it is time to give a chance to the idea that with Trump, Europe can actually win, namely, the most crucial thing: the capability to defend itself. The importance of this should not be underestimated.
