If we need to define the character traits of contemporary politicians, altruism would certainly not be included in the list of attributes. It is the same with French President Emmanuel Macron, who has flooded the political market place with ideas to boost European defence to save Ukraine, moreover, to build a coalition that goes beyond the EU and NATO. This time, we will look into the reasons and driving forces behind Macron’s recent actions and proposals. (Spoiler alert: altruism is not one of them.)
The concept of growing beyond EU borders seems to be the latest madness in the bloc, with a slogan of ’To be considered truly European, go beyond the EU!’
This is the new-fashioned formula Emmanuel Macron is trying to turn into practice as he lays out plans such as organising the ’Coalition of the Willing’ to support Ukraine or proposing the extention of the French nuclear shield for the wider continent.
But how unselfish can such gestures be considering that during Macron’s presidency France has been experiencing unprecedented crises, beginning from a migration crisis through a financial one to series of domestic political crises resulted in government reshuffles…? In 2025, two years before the end of his second term, the question of whether he will be either the saviour or destroyer of France is still open.
In addition to the highly complicated domestic situation in France, in a wider context, one of the main driving forces behind Macron’s intentions is the sad fact that negotiations over a possible peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow remain beyond European influence.
Given the wider – almost global – perspective of foreign affairs provided by the ’Coalition of the Willing’ and the potentials of the French defence industry, this new cooperation of a group of states accompanied by the ReArm Europe plan – a new initiative of almost €800 billion to strengthen European defence announced by the President of European Commission on 4 March – seems to be the only escape for Emmanuel Macron from the chaotic domestic political situation.
With boosting the French defence industry, not only Macron but also his country would benefit as on the long run, the French defence companies’ new contracts would definitely bring a political survival for President Macron.
To achieve his political goal and keep the power, he needs not only to look through the EU but also jump through NATO and he seems to be ready to do that.
In this context, it should be noted that, strangely enough, there is a striking overlapping between Macron’s ambitions and certain recent statements by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
’We will continue closely coordinating the European support to Ukraine. As Europe goes beyond the EU’, Ursula von der Leyen said when she debriefed like-minded non-EU countries’ leaders on the European Council meeting which took place on 20 March. The similarity between these words and Macron’s intentions is so striking that it cannot be ignored.
Furthermore, as a sign of the new circumstances, the ReArm Europe proposal by von der Leyen was warmly greeted by Germany, which has been advocating EU budgetary orthodoxy for decades. We also cannot miss the fact that the idea of Macron to open a strategic debate on protecting European allies through France’s nuclear deterrent seems to be a clear response to such a call by Friedrich Merz a couple of weeks before…
All things considered, this new interest-orinted relation appears to be a bizarre but utmost innovative political marriage between the French President and the President of the Commission, the German ’Iron Lady’, with consequences reaching far beyond the EU’s borders – exactly in line with their political aspirations.
Since Emmanuel Macron must, above all, regain his strength on the domestic scene, he did not hesitate to build on the most elementary instinct – fear -, when he delivered his historic televised address to the nation on 5 March. ’Europeans were rightfully concerned by events shaking the world order’ and ’We must admit that a new era is beginning. (…) Our security is also under threat.’, he said.
He also stressed that the Russian threat goes beyond Ukraine, it concerns the whole of Europe.He said that ’Russia has already turned the Ukrainian conflict into a global one’ by deploying North Korean soldiers and Iranian weapons on European soil. With Moscow spending more than 40% of its budget on military armament, it would be ’madness to remain a mere spectator,’ Macron stated adding that, Ukraine’s surrender and collapse of Ukraine is not a peace.
In his speech, Macron also raised the issue of deploying European troops to Ukraine if a peace deal with Moscow were to be reached as well as his idea of extending France’s nuclear umbrella to cover all European countries and their partners.
’Our generation will no longer reap the dividends of peace, but it is up to us to ensure that our children will one day benefit from the dividends of our commitments,’ he concluded.
At this point, the attention of the reader should be drawn to another striking overlapping between Macron’s words and that of Ursula von der Leyen. ’The era of the peace dividend is long gone. The security architecture that we relied on can no longer be taken for granted. Europe is ready to step up. We must invest in defence, strengthen our capabilities, and take a proactive approach to security’, von der Leyen said when presenting on 19 March the White Paper for European Defence and the ReArm Europe Plan / Readiness 2030. As if they were using the same playbook…
In a relatively explicit way, Macron pushes to wartime economy in recent months, and to this end he is not afraid to paint a vision of World War III. In his live social media appearance on 20 February, the French President urged viewers to realize that ’We are entering a time when each and every one of us must ask ourselves what we can do for the nation. You have a role to play,’ Macron said. In the same speech, he appealed for European strategic autonomy and common loans to pay for defense spending. To a question asking if Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine could lead to World War III, Macron claimed that Russian has already globalized the war in Ukraine.
According to Macron, in view of the acceleration of peace negotiations, it was necessary to start planning to define credible security guarantees to make a lasting peace in Ukraine a reality. He expressed such a view on 11 March, after the meeting of military chiefs from across Europe and beyond – representatives from 34 countries, most of them from Europe and NATO, but also from Australia, New Zealand and Japan – to draw up a plan to define credible security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire.
To make the big picture complete, some figures needed to be mentioned. France currently allocates 2% of its GDP to its defence sector. Macron told French newspaper Le Figaro that he aims to raise defence spending up to 3.5% of the country’s GDP. Such a drastic increase would be a major challenge given the state of France’s strained public finances, experts warn. According to forecasts, the French government can expect little support from opposition parties both on the far right and hard left.
All the information and developments detailed above should be assessed in light of the fact that the starting point is that French-led discussions about constructing a European arms industry began at a time when it is virtually a non-existent sector in many EU countries. This is the very strategic gap that allows the French (and German) defence companies to ’infiltrate’ through their products all EU Member States as well as non-EU partners, in particular Ukraine, which must be both defended and rebuilt after a ceasefire and peace agreement. All of Macron’s recent initiatives and proposals, including the already held talks and the planned meetings of the ’Coalition of the Willing’ in Paris and his talks with US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, even his flirting with von der Leyen should be seen in this perspective.
Emmanuel Macron certainly does not want to be left out of the expected benefit, simply because he cannot afford it if he wants to remain France’s No.1 politician, moreover, to become EU’s new wannabe defence leader and also head of a new political and military bloc stretching beyond the EU.
However, Germany will have a say in the latter two issues, moreover, Macron is certainly to face harsh criticism from some Member States for some of his Ukraine-related proposals. Overall, his new alliance with Ursula von der Leyen may not be enough to survive.
Taking all facts into consideration, it can be stated with certainty that Macron’s proposals cannot serve the interests of Ukraine or Europe, as his ideas are being subordinated to his own political objectives. In the world of politics, there is no altruistic help. We are just in the midst of a European power game that has kicked off with Donald Trump’s return to the White House and Emmanuel Macron is just one of those trying to ride the waves caused by ’Trumpnado’. How far he can reach, we will see in the coming months.
