The heated debate over the idea of inviting Ukraine to NATO has revealed the main focus of global mainstream politics, namely, the U.S. presidential election, with an anticipated victory for the Democrats, giving another four years to them to continue their political course, including vocal support for Ukraine. The intention of the global mainstream to interlink the U.S. presidential election and the issue of Ukraine’s accession to NATO leaves no room for doubt, given that, strangely, the debate on Ukraine culminated in the run-up to the election.
The failure of the Democrats to win the presidential election and, ultimately, the fact that Donald J. Trump is preparing for his second term of office, has destroyed all these plans. On 5 November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has found himself in a deadlock as he has been left without a powerful US patron. Not only the 2022 Ukrainian Peace Formula but also Zelenskyy’s recent Victory Plan with its very first point calling for Ukraine’s immediate admission to NATO, now seem to be stuck in a time capsule left somewhere between the past and the future.
Zelenskyy’s trick to hide the demand of invitation of Ukraine to NATO behind glittering words has not remained unnoticed in the international community, but given the modest support for the Victory Plan, particularly its first point about NATO by Washington, this issue has been put in the background.
The administration in Kyiv knows well that the decision on Ukraine’s invitation to join NATO depends on the Alliance’s political will, primarily that of the US. Both Kyiv and EU acknowledge that, with Donald Trump’s victory, the chances of Ukraine joining NATO have decreased. At the same time, there is a risk that Trump will cut US aid to Ukraine.
After the Republican’s sweeping U.S. election victory, ex NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen acknowledged the possible risk that Trump would cut off military aid to Ukraine. At the same time, he doubted that Trump would try to force Ukrainians into negotiations on a peace deal they do not perceive as fair.
It is also worth recalling the reporting by the Reuters with reference to an unnamed senior Ukrainian official who said it felt ’less likely’ after Trump’s victory that there would be a NATO invitation for Ukraine and acknowledged there was a risk Trump would scale back aid.
Given that achieving a green light to Ukraine’s accession to NATO has been Zelenskyy’s priority since 2022, adding that this narrative has also been used as an effective tool in government’s communication to pull Ukraine out of the conflict with Russia, with providing security guarantees of a just and lasting peace, Ukrainian President is now left alone with his empty promises. For a politician, especially the president of a country at war, failure to fulfil certain promises has implications, especially when it comes to security guarantees and war and peace are at stake. Very strong support of Ukrainians for accession to NATO has been an unshakable fact for decades and recent surveys reaffirm that this issue is still priority for them.
According to recent polls by Ukrainian Razumkov Centre, if a referendum on Ukraine’s accession to NATO were held in the near future, 82% of people surveyed stated they would participate; currently, about 86% of those who would participate in the referendum are in favor of accession, and 10% against it.
In light of these figures, Zelenskyy will definitely disappoint millions of Ukrainians by failing to successfully navigate his country into the Alliance. In political sense, this failure is unlikely to survive, even if one of the Ukrainian president’s supporters, outgoing EU foreign and security policy chief Josep Borrell, tried to improve Zelenskyy’s position by claiming in an interview to European Pravda that, ’Ukraine’s membership in the EU is the strongest security commitment or security guarantee that we can offer to Ukraine.’, referring to the EU-Ukraine security agreement signed in June for the next 10 years.
Well, Zelenskyy, who in his Victory Plan said that ’now, an invitation for Ukraine to join NATO could be pivotal for achieving piece’, certainly disagrees. ’How peace could come if Ukraine does not receive an invitation to join NATO, which, according to the President, would be essential for peace…?’, Ukrainians may ask.
Zelenskyy indisputably still has supporters worldwide. However, the Ukrainian President’s position has been shaken, as his strongest pillar of support is collapsing with the departure of the Biden administration. In parallel with this, Trump’s return is likely to amplify the voices in both the EU and NATO that have argued against continued financial and military support for Ukraine and opposed further steps of Kyiv towards NATO.
As is well-known, the U.S. and Germany are the major powers which call for slow-walking concerning Zelenskyy’s demand for an immediate invitation to join NATO, but these two states aren’t the only blockers.
It is worth recalling the words of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who said that, as long as he serves as PM, Ukraine will never join NATO. He also warned that letting Ukraine join NATO would be a good basis for a third world war.
Ukraine’s joining NATO is opposed by a number of European countries other than Germany and Slovakia for various reasons, such as Slovenia, Hungary, Belgium and Spain, despite the fact that many of them have signed long-term security cooperation and support agreements with Ukraine.
It is strange how quickly the trajectory on Ukraine has been shifted. Recall that despite many foreign policy experts called on NATO members to avoid advancing toward Ukrainian membership at the alliance’s Summit in Washington 10 July, 2024, arguing that if Ukraine is admitted, Russia attacking Ukraine in the future would trigger NATO’s Article 5, which calls on members to rush to a member’s defense if attacked, the Summit’s formal declaration said that Kyiv is on an ’irreversible path’ to membership. ’Ukraine’s future is in NATO,’ alliance members said in their statement. ’We will continue to support it on its irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership.’
Then came Trump and everything abruptly changed, even though his inauguration is months away.
The first signs of change could be seen at the meetings of the European Political Community (EPC) and the EuCo in Budapest on 7-8 November. ’There was agreement that Europe should take more responsibility for its peace and security. To be blunt, we cannot wait for the Americans to protect us,’ Hungarian PM Viktor Orban said after the meeting of the EPC. It is worth noting that, in his answer to a question about how the situation will change with the victory of Donald Trump, Josep Borrell used almost the same words, saying that ’For Europe, this is another awakening moment. A moment to realise that we cannot outsource our security to anyone. It’s up to us to take care of ourselves. If we want to influence the world, we need to be more united, we need to build a stronger Europe.
According to media reports, there was a debate on the meetings on support for Ukraine: while some say Europe must reconsider the support, others disagree and want it to continue. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was among those stressing the importance of Europe and the United States continuing to support Ukraine against Russia.
Due to the results of the U.S. presidential election and the relatively low international support for the Ukrainian Victory Plan, including Ukraine’s invitation to NATO, an increasing frustration in Zelenskyy’s remarks can be felt. Add to this the result of the latest polls showing a decrease in public trust and support for the President of Ukraine. A possible end game, both in the war and his own political carreer, can be close. Zelenskyy is well aware of the fact that as for security guarantees, EU’s solidarity clauses are not equivalent of Article 5 of the NATO treaty and he must tell it to the Ukrainian people. With Trump’s victory and dropping the issue of Ukraine’s immediate invitation to NATO, Europe has avoided Armageddon which now threatens Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his home country.
