In Brussels these days, the script is turning into a comedy of errors.
The EU’s plan to gradually ban all Russian gas (pipeline and LNG) by 2027 — a move long cheered as tough on the Kremlin — has hit an unexpected roadblock.
France (Europe’s largest LNG importer) and Belgium suddenly announced they won’t back the ban until further economic and legal assurances are ironed out. France’s Energy Minister dutifully handed the perfunctory excuse to Politico, ‘What we’re defending is a European strategy of diversification … which is already on the table’, as in ‘diversification’ is France’s top priority only until somebody mentions actually stopping any Russian supply. (Spoiler: it isn’t.)
In other words, the self-appointed champions of sanctions are now acting as if ‘Sanctions? What sanctions?’ when it comes to gas flowing into their own ports.
Let’s face it: there is incredible irony in this turn of events.
For years Paris was quite content supporting EU sanctions when they affected others, as France had almost no gas piped in from Russia.
So, when Brussels tightened the noose on Russian energy elsewhere, Paris clapped politely and carried on. Even when the Nord Stream pipelines were sabotaged in 2022, cutting off two of Russia’s key gas arteries to Europe, France raised no uproar. President Macron pointedly remarked that it was ‘still impossible to say’ who did it and shifted to offering naval patrols to secure infrastructure. In other words, French leadership treated the attack like a security incident, not a geopolitical crisis.
But now that France’s gas supply stands to be cut off, we hear a very different tune.
Two years ago, pipeline sabotage was tolerable; today, losing French LNG is intolerable.
Suddenly Paris is all about ‘energy security’ and ‘flexibility’.
Suddenly a ban is ‘unreasonable’ (according to TotalEnergies’ CEO Patrick Pouyanné) because they haven’t found enough alternatives. Suddenly every lawyerly question about ‘legal certainty’ is worth a million euro in LNG contracts. France’s playing the classic role of the harmless sanction hawk who cries foul only when his own nest egg is endangered.
The numbers are striking. French consumption is down, yet imports of Russian LNG have exploded. France paid over €600 million to Russia for LNG in Q1 2024 alone. Russia became France’s second-largest LNG supplier (after the U.S.), accounting for 34 percent of French LNG imports.
This surge continues despite ample supply from the U.S. and Qatar. French officials blame ‘long-term contracts’.
Technically, they’re within EU rules.
But the growth is stark, nevertheless: French LNG terminals like Fos-sur-Mer have been busy unloading Russian cargoes and even re-exporting them to Germany.
TotalEnergies owns a 20 percent stake in the Yamal LNG project in Siberia. Under long-term contracts, it must take 4 million tons of LNG per year until 2032. Total’s CEO publicly warned that banning Russian LNG before alternatives are ready would be ‘unreasonable’.
French ministers insist this is about EU-wide stability. But few believe them. One analyst noted France has no interest in positions that ‘contradict’ its economic base. And Total’s legal commitments mean that a ban would cost billions.
Meanwhile, others in Europe suffer.
German industry faces high costs. Spain and the Netherlands want out of Russian LNG but rely on an EU-wide ban to avoid lawsuits. Without France on board, the legal risks fall unevenly.
The result: fractured EU strategy. Paris lectures on solidarity and green transition but fiercely defends Russian LNG contracts.
The contradiction is glaring: sanctions for thee, but not for me.
A year ago, Paris preached unity. Today, it’s buried in the fine print. When French LNG is at risk, solidarity gives way to caveats. And while Spanish and Dutch ministers plead for a joint exit, France dodges.
It’s classic gaslighting. Paris claims commitment to Ukraine, decarbonization, and EU unity—but its actions say, ‘business first, values later’. One hopes Brussels remembers which flag France really flew when it mattered.
Yet, despite all this absurdity, there is a silver lining: at last, France and Belgium have woken up.
We should all give them a polite round of applause. Not for their consistency, of course, but for finally realizing what others — like Hungary and Slovakia — have been saying for years: energy diversification is not just a political slogan. It’s a physical and economic reality. Cutting all Russian gas is not a symbolic gesture; it’s a hard, painful, and possibly self-sabotaging decision.
When Hungary and Slovakia previously pointed out that gas import diversification is a physical, not just political or energy security issue, their voices weren’t heard in Paris.
But now that the pain is knocking on French and Belgian doors, suddenly we hear talk of pragmatism, contracts, infrastructure, and energy resilience. Welcome to the party. Better late than never.
One must wonder, though: why does Europe still love shooting itself in the foot and then pretending it was dancing? Perhaps one day, the EU will realize that strategic autonomy doesn’t mean cutting off your own lifelines while smiling bravely for the cameras.
