(Spoiler: No, it was not.)
Our topic today should be discussed partly in the context of the traditionally and admittedly troubled Baltic-Russian relations, as well as in light of the issue of power concentration in the European Commission. When thinking about these matters, our main question is: will the frequent and loud repeating of the slogans ’Glory to Ukraine!’ on the one hand and, ’Yawohl!’ on the other, be sufficient or, is something more than this needed to build a stronger Europe?
Baltic candidates were appointed to a number of key jobs in the new European Commission set up at the end of 2024, including EU Trade Commissioner, EU Defence Commissioner – which is a new role in EU history – and, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, one of the VPs in the Commission.
It is not only easy to see that all three areas have indeed become key and closely interlinked by 2025, but also that this fact was already well foreseeable at a time when Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was just in the process of forming the composition of her future new Commission. Further support for Ukraine, more sanctions against Russia and the need for strengthening European defence as well as certain turbulences around NATO – all these issues were already on the table when von der Leyen needed to find the appropriate players in her big game in 2024.
Beyond the fact that all of them have a lot of political experience of governance in their respective countries, what all three Baltic officials – Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top diplomat from Estonia, Andrius Kubilius, European Defence Commissioner from Lithuania and Valdis Dombrovskis, the bloc’s Economy Commissioner from Latvia – have in common is that they go far beyond their respective areas of responsibility on a number of issues, including the common European defence and rearmament, which they try to bring into line with other issues such as European support for Ukraine. Two of them (Kubilius and Dombrovskis) are with the conservative European People’s Party (EPP), the same political group in EP where von der Leyen belongs while Kallas’s Estonian Reform Party’s MEPs sit in the Renew Europe group.) Last but not least, the relatively small influence of the Baltic states and their traditionally good relations with the US were undoubtably all a big pro to von der Leyen in picking up the Baltic candidates.
Our question today is: Was it a good decision to appoint Baltic nationals to these key EU jobs? Can we consider them fully autonomous decision-makers or are they all just von der Leyen’s puppets?
Kallas: The Iron Lady of the Baltics
We should start our brief analysis with Kaja Kallas of Estonia, as she is the one who holds a position with the most power and responsibility: she is in a position to shape the EU’s foreign affairs and security policy at a time when the war in Ukraine may have a chance to end, which would require redefining not only EU-Ukraine but also EU-Russia relations. (Her role is crucial in initiating new sanctions against Russia, as well as in providing military support to Ukraine.) In addition to that and also in connection with this issue, it would be her responsibility to find the way how to boost the bloc’s defence capabilities in a way Europe would economically benefit rather than cripple once and for all. All this, of course, requires a rethinking and revitalisation of EU-US relations, too.
In brief, this is what Kallas should be engaged in right now. But is it realistic to have such high expectations of designing and successfully implementing all this in the case of Estonia’s ex-Prime Minister, who, back in February, left the White House in disgrace without being received by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio…?
’A fervent and vocal critic of the Kremlin, she will at the very least change the tone of EU responses to Putin’s aggression’, an expert of the US-based politology institute CEPA said after Kallas was appointed to the top EU job last year.
In the role of EU Foreign Policy Chief, ’Kallas represents a stark contrast to her immediate predecessor, Josep Borrell, whose leadership was often criticised for being reactive, lacking assertiveness, and failing to provide strategic direction amidst divisions among member states. Unlike Borrell, Kallas is poised to bring an unwavering commitment to defending democratic values and countering authoritarian aggression, particularly from actors like Russia and China. At a time when the EU is demonstrating more solidarity on defence than ever before, Kallas putting her shoulder behind the wheel might see defence as the new centrepiece of the European project.’, Institute for Security and Develiopment Policy said, calling Kallas ’the Iron Lady of the Baltics’.
Kubilius: A ’peace through strength in Ukraine’ advocate and, a lobbyist for defence companies
Lithuania’s ex-PM is a man of ’negotiating from a position of strength’. He is not simply a fierce backer of Ukraine but is all-in on supporting the war-torn country in its struggle. Despite the fact that von der Leyen repeatedly stressed that the new job of Defence Commissioner is not a power grab, in fact, it is. As Kubilius is responsible for the strengthening of the EU’s defense industrial base, in addition, for concepts for a European air defense shield and cyber defense programs, his portfolio covers really crucial areas.
As a rule, Kubilius reports to VP Henna Virkkunen who is in charge of the technology portfolio and, who comes from Finland – one of the bloc’s most Russia-skeptic countries. In addition, she is also with von der Leyen’s EPP. Thus, everything is coming full circle.
Kubilius may have a great sense of justice, as he could not ignore the critical remarks made by US Vice President JD Vance in his speech at the Munich Security Conference regarding the EU’s poor handling of Ukraine. ’Europe did more than the US’, Kubilius immediately pushed back against Washington’s accusations in an interview with a Ukrainian news outlet stating that while the EU’s support to Ukraine was around 134 billion euros ($140 billion), the same support from the US was around $100 billion.
Early this year, Kubilius has received a task of critical importance from von der Leyen with a deadline in mid-May: to convene a meeting with European defence industry CEOs in Brussels. In preparation for this event, Kubilius has held a number of meetings with the leaders of prominent defence companies such as the Thales Group, Airbus and MBDA. From economic perspective, these high-level talks between Commission President and the companies’ CEOs can be considered a historic meeting as this strategic defence dialogue is meant to boost the weapons production across the continent at a time when war in Ukraine still continues. Also in this context, it is worth adding that Kubilius believes that the EU would effectively double the volume of weapons Ukraine receives by investing in domestic weapons production.
Besides, the fact that Kubilius routinely concludes his speeches with the slogan ’Glory to Ukraine!’ (most recently at the Kyiv Security Forum on 7 May) and makes statements that show Ukraine in a much more favourable light than it actually is on the battlefield, claiming that ’Russia will not achieve any major victories’, is another important aspect to note. He has become one of the most welcomed guests in Kyiv for a reason.
During his visit to Kyiv on 9 May, while meeting with Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umierov, the two sides discussed not only Ukraine’s efforts to counter Russia but also the next steps in developing Ukraine’s defence-industrial potential. ’We expect integration into the European defence industry – for joint production of critically important security solutions. We focused on new EU mechanisms that can help attract additional funding for Ukrainian manufacturing. We are ready for deep cooperation with Europe to implement large-scale joint projects effectively’, Ukrainian Defence Minister emphasised after the meeting with Kubilius.
Dombrovskis: a Commissioner with a mission to bring Ukraine to the EU
’The EU continues to support Ukraine – politically, financially, economically and militarily. Today we are disbursing a further €1 billion under the €45 billion G7 Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration initiative – the 4th disbursement this year. This comes on top of the €6 billion already delivered to Kyiv so far in 2025, with a further €12.1 billion to be distributed later in the year. These loans are to be repaid with proceeds from immobilised Russian State assets in the EU – Russia will pay for the destruction it has caused to Ukraine.’, Commissioner for Economy and Productivity Implementation and Simplification Valdis Dombrovskis recently said following the European Commission disbursed the 4th tranche of its exceptional macro-financial assistance loan to Ukraine on 8 May.
In his posts on Facebook and X, vocally pro-Ukraine Dombrovskis shared this announcement with the slogan #StandWithUkraine which is set as frame of his profile.
The Latvian Commissioner is not only proactive when it comes to the G7 loans to Ukraine, he is equally enthusiastic in his discussions with both Ukraine’s First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko and the country’s Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko and even Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal regarding issues like EU enlargement and steps to bring Ukraine closer to EU’s Single Market.
As EU Commissioner responsible for the so-called ’Ukraine Facility’ which is a tool designed to offer Ukraine financial and technical assistance from the EU from 2024 to 2027, totaling €50 billion, Dombrovskis holds very strong cards in his hands. In addition to that, another trump card in the hands of EU Commissioner Dombrovskis is the issue of sanctions packages against Russia. During his tenure, the EU has continued on adopting new sanctions against the Russian Federation, strictly in line with the expectations of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. (So far, 16 packages of sanctions have been adopted, the last one 24 February, on the 3rd anniversary of Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine, hitting Russian crude oil and vessels)
Dombrovskis has not changed his mind with regard to the sanctions even after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the US would be in favour of lifting sanctions imposed on Moscow. ’I think it is very clear that with the moves of the current Trump administration, the EU will have to deal more with its own security issues, which also affects the sanctions policy,’ the Latvian Commissioner commented on Rubio’s words.
Speaking about Dombrovskis’ role, it is inevitable to mention that, in his understanding, Ukraine’s defense industry is part of the European defense industrial base. This was stated by him on 24 April during the Spring Meetings 2025 of the World Bank and IMF in Washington. ’The Ukrainian nation has paid a tremendous price, and its battlefield has become a real testing ground for the development and improvement of European and Ukrainian defense products,’ Dombrovskis said.
As for trade with the US amid the introduction of increased tariffs, Valdis Dombrovskis made it clear that the EU would prefer to reach a negotiated solution with the US over trade but will respond with countermeasures if discussions do not lead to a solution.
The reasons behind the Baltic Triumvirate’s difficulties with the new US leadership
As it is already very clear, the new US administration is not interested any more in maintaining the liberal world order and keeping close contacts with liberals. Given that both Kallas, Kubilius and Dombrovskis were appointed in the Commission last year, for Donald Trump and his team, they all stink of the old liberal world order. From a merely defense and security perspective, the appointment of these top officials in the Commission could have been a good idea, but only in the years of the Biden administration. Due to this specific reason, they have now very little chance of convincing Washington of their skills and willingness to cooperate, especially in light of the fact that they are vocal critics of Russia. They simply have no chance of making a good impression on Trump.
Another relevant aspect is that Balts have been chosen to top EU jobs not only due to the new geopolitical situation and the new security situation in Europe but also because Ursula von der Leyen had good personal contacts with Baltic center-right political parties and political leaders. Based on these excellent personal relations, it was her idea to turn the European discourse and the area of EU politics more toward the Baltic states. Considering their small influence, von der Leyen should not have to be worry about any hostile steps, criticism or intentions to grab more power.
How does all this affect the EU’s foreign policy, defence and trade and the EU as a whole?
Kallas’ focus on defence and security issues seems to overshadow other aspects of EU foreign policy such as traditional economic diplomacy which would be crucial considering the Trump administration’s strong intentions to reach a more favourable position for the US through a system of protective tariffs. Kubilius is all for Ukraine to become as much as possible an integral part of European defence and specific programmes aimed at strengthening it, such as the EU’s €800 billion ReArm Europe package, while most likely also serving the interests of big defence companies, under the active guidance of von der Leyen. As EU Commissioner for Economy, Dombrovskis, similarly, is more concerned with Ukraine than with everyday problems of EU Member States, in addition, just like Kubilius and Kallas, he is also vocally promoting the need for a merger of the European and Ukrainian defence industries.
Fully contradicting the EU’s core values, the members of the ’Baltic Triumvirate’, especially Kallas, do not allow any critical voices be heard in the EU, especially concerning the further military support for Kyiv and long-term military partnership with Ukraine. This approach will definitely trigger further heated debates between these top EU officials and Member States.
As far as ties with transatlantic partners, the failure to improve the relation with the US threatens to create a new rift not only between the EU and the US but also between Member States. Just as there are Member States questioning the sustainability of further support for Ukraine, there are also EU members who can easily find a common language with the new US leadership.
Overall, Member States and the EU as a whole would probably be in a better position if the critical areas of the bloc were not in the hands of the Baltic countries today and for the coming years. The only winner in this situation is Ursula von der Leyen who ended up with three big-name puppets in her second European Commission, all working in her political and economic interests. Undoubtably, Member States and the EU as a whole will pay for it.
