When world leaders and negotiators arrived in Baku, Azerbaijan, for the 29th UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) expectation were high (although somewhat guarded) that a substantive progress could be achieved.
Then, there were great concerns. As usual.
And, at the end of two extremely excruciating weeks, that target (hope) was eventually displaced.
The much-debated climate finance agreement left developing countries frustrated. Meanwhile, China emerged as a key player, walking a tightrope between its role as one of the world’s largest polluters and its ambitions as the green leader for the developing world.
Big Promises, Bitter Aftertaste
The outcome of COP29 was the new $300 billion annual climate finance goal, a significant increase from the $100 billion pledge made in 2009.
Yet, developing nations, who have borne the brunt of climate disasters, were unimpressed. The fund includes a mix of loans and grants, which many poorer nations criticized as inadequate and, in some cases, burdensome.
Chandni Raina, India’s lead delegate, described the package as “little more than an optical illusion,” adding that it failed to reflect the enormity of the climate challenges facing the Global South. Others echoed her frustration, accusing wealthier nations of waiting until the final hours of negotiations to reveal the terms of the deal, effectively cornering the most vulnerable into accepting it.
For countries already grappling with rising debt and repeated climate disasters, the outcome was a bitter pill to swallow. Behind closed doors, negotiators from wealthier nations reportedly pointed to the political uncertainty surrounding U.S. climate leadership as a reason to temper expectations—a clear nod to the re-election of Donald Trump, who has previously withdrawn the U.S. from the Paris Agreement.
China’s Calculated Role
One country’s presence stood out among this discontent: China’s.
Its legitimacy as a climate leader is frequently questioned because it is one of the biggest carbon emitters in the world.
However, China took advantage of the Baku summit to show the developing world that it is a reliable partner, especially during a period of uncertainty regarding American leadership.
“China’s resolve to address climate change will not waver, no matter the international situation,” declared Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang, underscoring Beijing’s unwavering commitment to climate action. Beijing demonstrated its expertise in renewable energy by supplying electric cars for the summit and financing solar projects in Azerbaijan.
China has also been steadily increasing its climate finance contributions, committing over $24.5 billion to developing nations since 2016. Beijing made a voluntary commitment to align its contributions with the new global financing framework during the COP29. Although cautious optimism greeted this move, other delegates noted that recipient nations are deeper burdened because a large portion of China’s aid is linked to loans.
China’s leadership in the supply chain for renewable energy is what makes their climate campaign so important. Being the biggest manufacturer of solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries worldwide, Beijing is influencing the global transformation in addition to selling renewable energy solutions. Li Shuo, an expert on Chinese climate policy, stated that the country’s renewable energy industry is more than simply about its own domestic demands. “It’s a strategic tool for influence, addressing the global demand for green technologies while establishing dependencies on Chinese-made equipment.”
Developing World Divided
China’s expanding influence reveals a wider rift in the developing world.
Many countries contend that the 1992 classification system of “developed” and “developing” nations no longer accurately captures the realities of the modern world. Island governments facing sea level rise and African countries like Nigeria claim that wealthier developing countries like China and India must shoulder more of the burden.
Nigeria’s Environment Minister Balarabe Abbas Lawal declared, “China and India are no longer on the same level as nations like ours.” “They ought to stop being viewed as the most vulnerable and increase their contributions to global climate finance.”
China has resisted calls to redefine its status, pointing at its still-developing economy and the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” under international climate agreements. For many nations, this is a sticking point that threatens unity in climate negotiations.
A Fraying COP Process
Beyond the headlines, the COP29 exposed the growing fragility of the UN-led climate process itself.
Hosting duties fell to Azerbaijan, a country with limited experience in climate diplomacy and whose economy is heavily reliant on fossil fuels. President Ilham Aliyev didn’t help matters by lauding oil and gas as “gifts from God,” sparking criticism from environmental activists and negotiators alike.
The broader geopolitical context didn’t help. The lingering shadow of Trump’s potential climate disengagement created tensions, as did concerns about China’s intentions. Meanwhile, NGOs, typically allies of developing nations, adopted a more confrontational tone, often disrupting negotiations with chants and protests that some felt undermined constructive dialogue.
“It’s hard to build consensus when the divisions are this deep,” said one senior negotiator. “We’re trying to address the biggest crisis of our time, but the fractures—between rich and poor, East and West—seem to grow wider every year.”
China’s Strategic Gamble
Notwithstanding the disagreements, COP29 highlighted China’s geopolitical objectives. Its climate finance proposals have the potential to increase the impact of its Belt and Road Initiative, which has already changed global infrastructure in the developing world. Beijing’s capacity to establish itself as a Global South leader may change the face of climate diplomacy as the United States negotiates its internal politics.
“China understands that this is about geopolitics, not just climate,” stated Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa. “China will be prepared to step in if the U.S. retreats, not only as a green leader but also as a partner to countries in dire need of assistance”.
Looking Ahead
As the dust settles on COP29, the world faces familiar questions: How will nations bridge the growing divide between the developed and developing worlds? Will China’s rhetoric on climate leadership translate into action? And can the UN process adapt to the realities of a multipolar world?
What’s clear is that the stakes are higher than ever.
The next COP will not only need to address the gaps left by Baku but also restore trust in a process that, for all its flaws, remains humanity’s best hope of tackling the climate crisis together.
