The fact that last December, the German Bundestag has decided to provide Ukraine with further military aid, including short and medium-range air defence missile systems and two Patriot launchers, and that, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledged further significant support for Ukraine in his New Year speech, does not matter too much, especially in light of allegations by German opposition politicians about certain German plans to hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The case seems to be yet another example of how visions and dreams diverge from reality, especially in the new reality that has hit Europe with the election of Donald J. Trump to a second term as U.S. President.
Following a politician from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has claimed in early January that there were indications that Scholz would meet with Putin before Germany’s parliamentary elections scheduled for 23 February, Chancellor Scholz and his colleagues at the Social Democratic Party (SPD) quickly denied the assertion of the CDU about Scholz’s planned trip to Moscow. Scholz described the claims as baseless, saying ’honest people can be outraged’ by such statements.
As a general rule, it is worthwhile to study the facts and information available on this issue.
Scholz spoke by phone with Putin last November for the first time in two years. This call was labelled by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as ’a Pandora’s box’. In December, Scholz had a telephone conversation with Trump as well, during which the two leaders agreed that that the war has been going on for far too long and that it is essential to move as quickly as possible towards a just, equitable and enduring peace.
As it is well known, in his election campaign, Olaf Scholz positions himself as ’a chancellor of peace’ who advocates both support for Ukraine and negotiations with Russia and Putin personally to end the war. Given that Germany’s CDU is leading in pre-election polls, it is believed that CDU leader Friedrich Merz has the best chance of becoming the next German Chancellor.
In order to become a future ’Chancellor of Peace’, Scholz would certainly need to meet not only with Zelenskyy but also with Putin, otherwise it is impossible to imagine the preparation of a ceasefire and a peace agreement… In addition, Scholz, who has a low popularity rating in his home country as a result of his failed domestic policy, has no other chance to raise his own popularity than to demonstrate significant achievements in foreign affairs. In other words, the scenario of a possible Scholz-Putin meeting is not at all unrealistic.
But it seems that, in the new reality with Trump, there is no need for a German ’Chancellor of Peace’, be it Scholz, Merz or anyone else, given that Berlin is unlikely to be the new U.S. administration’s main ally in Europe. Paris and Rome have a greater chance to win this title, and even smaller EU member states such as Hungary or Slovakia may benefit more from their leaders’ good relations with Trump than Germany, which may fear that its economy will become a target for the new, tougher-than-ever U.S. economic policy.
This path, however, will clearly make it easier for any future German chancellor to make a decision whether to resume relations with Moscow, as he will be economically interested in it. No matter if the new chancellor will be Scholz or Merz, Germany is likely to re-open negotiations with Russia, with which it has strong historical, cultural and economic ties dating back centuries.
It should also be added right now that, such developments are likely to be in line also with the long-term vision of the 47th President of the United States.