One may find it a novelty, that the voice of French President Emmanuel Macron, so energetic on international political issues over the past few years, has faded to a point where it appears nearly undetectable following a historic defeat of his liberal party in EP elections in June and subsequent snap elections.
His only memorable remark was an open letter, in which he wrote that ’No one won French elections’, which is incorrect in such simplistic way or, more precisely, his claims are just partially true. As a matter of fact, no party or coalition including Macron’s centrist alliance, Ensemble which came second in elections, won enough seats to claim an absolute majority in the National Assembly, thus, no one can propose the name of a prime minister. (The left-wing alliance ’New Popular Front’ won 188 seats in France’s 577-seat National Assembly, Macron’s liberals finished on 161 seats, while the far-right National Rally and its allies finished with 142 MPs.) election results, Macron accepted the resignation of his prime minister, Gabriel Attal, who will stay on in a caretaker capacity until a new government is appointed.
Macron’s path to his poor performance in elections was largely paved by mistakes in domestic policy, including his controversial pensions reforms and introducing big hikes in the minimum wage. President of France has tried to compensate for his poor domestic performance with his increasingly aggressive voice in international affairs, including his statements about sending troops to Ukraine – unsuccessfully, as results of the elections showed.
As far as foreign and security policy is concerned, it should be noted that Emmanuel Macron, who crossed red lines in this area only a few months earlier, has even become less visible in this area. One striking example was the recent meeting of NATO countries in the United States, where Macron, representing France was left nearly unnoticable. Unlike in Vilnius last year, at NATO Summit in Washington this July he remained silent while other allies, including Germany and the U.S., offered new air defence systems and long-range missiles to Ukraine. During the final press conference, Macron said he told allies that ’France has a clear constitution that allows it to ensure continuity in foreign policy.’ We will see it, however, in light of the current situation in France, there are serious doubts on the prospects of all the former promises of the French president.
After elections, Macron’s personal charm as a politician seems to have vanished in a second, as his political efforts seem also to be fading. Apart from the possibility that such developments will likely to lead to his fall, the situation also risks France’s marginalisation on the international stage. As Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, senior vice president of German Marshall Fund of the U.S. think tank, pointed out to Politico,’President Macron’s personal influence is diminished, and some of France’s partners intend to benefit from this partial withdrawal of French leadership, absorbed by the domestic scene.’
Such development could result once again in Germany’s growing political strength and economic advantage, not only in the field of European foreign policy but also in the defence industry, where there has been a disagreement between France and Germany on US role. Concerning European defence issues, all this could lead to new contracts for German companies such as Rheinmetall, moreover, the debate about US involvement may be seen in the future more from a German perspective rather than from a French one.
One can expect a similar situation in Macron’s foreign policy agenda and its representation in EU foreign affairs: just like his defence agenda, Macron’s foreign policy goals and, consequently, France’s position is likely to be overshadowed regarding important issues that have dominated the last months, such as the approval of the use of long-range missiles by Kyiv and sending troops to Ukraine.
There is less uncertainty about the future of the European Political Community (EPC) – a format he created in 2022-, which has and is likely to continue to have its own specific, balancing role in Europe, with the aim of strengthening the links between European countries.
As far as balance is concerned, it should be noted that Macron wanted to do his best, especially in his own country, in this specific field, but, as it turned out, this is where he seems to be losing the most. His image as President of France – an unquestionable symbol of his nation’s unity – has been seriously damaged, and it has its implications both in French domestic politics and on the international scene.
2027, when Mr Macron’s second term of office expires, may seem a distant prospect, but the fact that his influence has been severely eroded after the elections puts him in a very difficult situation.
It can be concluded that the image and reputation of Emmanuel Macron – a talented and ambitious European politician – has disappeared at once, and what remains is nothing more than painful struggles of a French liberal who tried so hard but eventually caused an enormous mess in France. After his stunning defeat in European elections, he promised ’a clarification’ which failed to happen due to the defeat of his own party in span elections, and France is now suffering from an unprecedented division. He has led his county straight into a political turmoil – this may remain his legacy.
It is not only Macron who personally loses in this game, but also France’s European and global status adversely affected due to this leftist ’human experiment’, which can also fail, together with Macron’s fall. Let us hope that these developments do not cast a shadow over the safe and secure conducting of the Paris Olympic Games, which is key from Macron’s perspective, as he announced that he will name who could become France’s next prime minister only after the Olympics. In the meantime, he has to face blackmailing on behalf of the left-wing electoral alliance ’New Popular Front’ (NPF) which says that if the president picks a PM from outside this group, this would mean he does not respect the choice of voters.
The fact that France’s ’Jupiter’ (Macron once compared himself to the Roman god Jupiter) promised to swim in the heavily polluted river Seine is a clear indication that he is ready to swallow any sh*t to regain his popularity. However, he is probably aware that this step would not be worth it, that is why he delayed his dip into the river, saying he will swim but ’not necessarily before the Olypics’.
