President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris waited for them in person, on the tarmac. (So did President Putin in Moscow, though he spiced it up with a red carpet and guard of honour.)
There were tears, hugs, proud smiles, and celebration.
24 detainees were involved in the biggest prisoner exchange in decades, no wonder it was declared to be “historic”, “the largest since the end of the Cold War” or a “great victory”. The “culmination of many rounds of complex, painstaking negotiations over many, many months”, as US national security adviser Jake Sullivan put it.
On the Russian side, the main “winner” is Vadim Krasikov, a hitman who has been serving a life sentence in Germany for killing a man in Berlin. (He is the second high-level Russian agent to be released within a year, following the swap of arms dealer Viktor Bout, in exchange for basketball star Brittney Griner.)
On the Western side, amongst the 16 released, the most known names are Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and former marine Paul Whelan.
An emotional and life-changing moment for those involved (and heartbreaking for those who were left out).
One important “message” was sent by the prisoner exchange: when it is about something important for Washington, direct contact with Russia is possible, so is negotiating and accepting Russia’s terms. There were direct phone calls between Washington and Moscow. Negotiations on many levels.
As no offer that failed to involve Vadim Krasikov was accepted, the U.S. eventually pressured Berlin to release the convicted murderer.
Another important “message” was pointed out by several experts.
The people on Moscow’s “we want them back” list were high-profile agents and criminals. The people whose freedom was secured by their release were all civilians falsely accused by Moscow or political dissidents. President Biden said, “deals like this one come with tough calls. There’s nothing that matters more to me than protecting Americans at home and abroad”. And that is the morally right thing to do. But it might encourage Russia (or other regimes) to follow the same script of “hostage diplomacy” by detaining and accusing foreign nationals to reach political gains.
The price tag is even more significant, though.
And not just because President Putin scored double points with the exchange.
First, he could prove at home that he won’t leave anybody, at least anybody important, behind. He could demonstrate that he can force the West to deal with him, negotiate with him and, in the end, accept his demands. His “henchmen” can be sure that their actions will have no consequences, as Roderich Kiesewetter (German politician from the CDU party) pointed out.
And secondly, he could get rid of a few dissidents, and did so at the expense of Western powers.
Ilya Yashin was one of those. He, in fact, was freed without his consent. He said, “what happened on August 11 I don’t view as a prisoner swap but as my illegal expulsion from Russia against my will. And I say sincerely, more than anything, I want now to go back home.” Some of the other exchanged Russian dissidents, like Kara-Murza or Oleg Orlov, shared his view.
Mr. Yashin planned to be “symbol of the resistance”, writing from prison. Now, he says Moscow had “responded with great enthusiasm and asked for guarantees that after arriving in Germany I would not fly back”.
Another issue casting a dark shadow on the deal is the timing.
It might be a coincidence, of course, but it is hard not to think that the deal was pushed through at all costs in order to boost the chances of (now VP) Kamala Harris, barely 100 days before Election Day.
The White House not only scored a win against Donald Trump (who declared a few days earlier that he was the only one who could take Gershkovich home).
They repeatedly emphasized that Harris played a significant role in pressuring Germany into releasing Krasikov: a proof of foreign-policy skills.
Even at the price of causing even more trouble to an already battered ally. And to the Polish government, for that matter.
Barely two years ago, Germany hesitated to free Krasikov in exchange for Alexei Navalny (who has, in the meantime, died in prison). Now, in the heat of the war in Ukraine, Berlin probably couldn’t afford to alienate Washington, even if it knew right from the start that it would get serious criticism from human rights organizations and the opposition.
The German leadership was tight lipped in the aftermath.
Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock classified the issue as a “highly sensitive dilemma” that “rightly leads to much, much need for conversation”. Justice Minister Markus Buschmann called it a “bitter decision”. Chancellor Olaf Scholz himself tried to balance the two sides, “it was therefore important to us that we have an obligation to protect German nationals as well as solidarity with the USA”.
The Polish government got under stronger fire from the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party. Bowing to pressure from Washington, Warsaw released Pavel Rubtsov (a.k.a. Pablo Gonzales, a Spanish-Russian journalist) accused of espionage, in exchange for … nothing, though a Polish journalist, Andrzej Poczobut is imprisoned in Belarus.
