Replacement migration to rebuild Ukraine?

5 min read

After the end of the conflict, Ukraine may begin to be populated with Africans and Afghans in order to prevent a demographic catastrophe.’, these surprising words were said on by Vladimir Paniotto, Director General of the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) in an interview on 6 October, commenting on the demography statistics in Ukraine.

According to the Ukrainian researcher, it will take a lot of resources to adapt the migrants, but this is one of the key requirements of the EU on the country’s admission to the European bloc. However, it would be more profitable for Ukraine to try to return Ukrainians who have gone abroad than to spend resources on adapting migrants from other countries with a different culture, the Ukrainian sociologist noted.

As absurd as the professor’s remarks may seem, it is worth taking a look at the reasons behind his words and explaining why the issue of population replacement has just been raised in Ukraine. In addition, we also touch on possible implications of replacement migration in case of Ukraine for the EU.

Conceptual grounds

Roots of replacement migration go back to 2000 when the UN Replacement Migration report was published. The UN publication has been the object of severe criticism considering that its approach consisted of estimating the migration volumes required to mitigate the effects of population decline and ageing. By the end of the 2010s, the UN study was updated and reassessed by the EU, however, its basic conceptual grounds remained the same. According to EU’s current perception, replacement migration can be defined as the volume of migrants needed to achieve specific demographic goals and it plays a positive role in the consequences of demographic ageing, moderating total population and working-age population declines.

Timing&Other Whys

The EU faces a dramatic demographic problem in the decades ahead and population ageing is putting pressure on EU countries, are well-known facts.  According to official estimates, in the absence of immigration, the EU population is projected shrink significantly, from 451 million in 2022 to 406 million in 2050 – a 10 percent decline. The number of working-age people (those aged 20-64) is projected to decline even more, from 264 million to 207 million – a 21 percent decline.

The baseline net-immigration scenario from the same projection suggests that immigration from outside the EU will increase the EU population by 41 million over the same period, composed mostly of working-age people and their children. Immigration would compensate for only slightly less than half of the decline in the working-age population.’, a recent publication by Bruegel Research says which has been used in various EU meetings, including that of the Commission.

It is important to note that, mostly due to record high migration from third countries, including the influx of displaced persons from Ukraine after Russia’s full-scale invasions in 2022, the EU’s population has grown for the second year in a row. Given this tendency, in European Commission’s visions, migration has become the key driver of population growth. Considering this, the recent population statistics will likely affect EU immigration policies at both the Union level and in individual countries, experts believe. Since migration has helped balance the natural population decline, there may be more detailed approaches to managing immigration. According to a recent ETIAS (European Travel Information and Authorization System) assessment, at national level, countries with population growth may change their immigration policies to better manage so-called new residents. On the other hand, countries with population decline might create more favorable immigration policies to attract so-called newcomers and encourage growth. These opinions undoubtably reflect the mainstream EU ideas regarding migration.

Volodymyr Paniotto, a recognised Ukrainian sociology professor who also works as the director of an international research institute has an access not only to various analyses from many countries and several data bases but also to written and oral information spread both in his country and abroad about further plans of the EU with Ukraine.

The timing is therefore partly motivated by the demographic situation in the EU, but there is also another aspect.

As the issue of Ukraine’s NATO membership which has been included in Zelenskyy’s so-called Victory Plan is no longer on the agenda due to the unsuccessful visit by the Ukrainian President to the US, the issue of Ukraine’s EU accession is moving into the forefront.

As part of a post-war settlement, officials in Brussels need to plan in advance who will be involved in reconstructing Ukraine, who will provide services there, who will work in the producing sectors of industry and most importantly, who will be employed in Ukrainian agriculture, also referred to as ’the EU’s future bread basket’. Considering that millions of Ukrainians have fled the country because of the war, concerns about availability of manpower in Ukraine after the war are quite reasonable.

Professor Paniotto has most likely seen a paper, a joint effort between the top oofficials in Kyiv and Brussels discussing how to replace Ukrainians who have fled the war and have no intention of returning to Ukraine. The idea of admitting migrants from Africa and Asia is probably only one of the options, but it is almost certain that such a scenario exists.

Facts&Data

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine in 2022, the decline in the population in Ukraine has intensified. Much more people died and much less children were born in 2023 and 2024 compared to the period up to  2022 which cannot be a surprise to anyone.

As of 31 August, 2024, 4 163 655 people, who had fled Ukraine as a consequence of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, were under temporary protection in the EU. (98.3% of the people who fled Ukraine and were under temporary protection in the EU at the end of August 2024 were Ukrainian.) According to official statistics, the EU countries hosting the highest number of beneficiaries of temporary protection from Ukraine, were Germany (1 122 330 people; 27.0% of the EU total), Poland (975 190; 23.4%) and Czechia (376 885; 9.1%).

Risks&Dangers

Migrants from non-European countries face serious difficulties in many areas of their new life in Europe, there is no doubt about that. How difficult the integration process of the newcomers can be, both the local inhabitants and the authorities of Amsterdam, Paris, Brussels and other cities with a record high number of inhabitants with migrant background witness on the streets and train stations of their beloved cities on a daily basis. They can see it with their own eyes, they can experience it each and every day.

Without paying attention to alarming phenomena and the bare facts, many argue that the arrival of migrants is not only a challenge but it provides opportunities. Those who say the arrival of new residents also brings fresh ideas, skills, and cultural diversity to the EU can also be right to some extent, however the reality is quite far from such an idealistic picture.

Speaking about realities, let us recall one certain case with UK farms and seasonal farm workers. In 2020, the year of the coronavirus pandemic, skilled and expereinced guest workers from Romania had to fly in the UK to harvest asparagus properly. As it turned out, the millions of Asian and African migrants living in the UK were all incapable of doing this sophisticated agricultural job…

It is recommended to keep this example in mind for Ukraine as well. Anyone who expects Ukrainian agricultural products to be harvested by African and Afghan migrants and delivered in a pre-processed form to European households is likely to be disillusioned.

The last time a similar plan worked well was in Germany decades ago with Turkish guest workers, however this story also has its own lessons by now, including the fact that this group of people form an almost homogeneous electoral bloc which makes this community almost unavoidable in politics, not to mention that most of these people are devoted supporters of Turkish President Erdogan…

As it is clear that, without migrants, Europe’s demography is in decline, speaking about Europe’s demographic winter is not exaggerated. As the EU’s population with migrant background keeps growing, policymakers, both at national and EU level, face serious challenges not only because immigration is the most controversial topic in social policy public debates  but also because of daily practical problems what make people’s lives uncomfortable, such as integration and employment problems, gradual deterioration of living conditions, lack of access to helath care, and so on. However, the greatest concern is a significant change in the EU’s population. If decision-makers in Brussels believe that migration replacement would the best solution for Ukraine which has suffered major population loss as a result of the war and which has already stepped on the path to EU membership, they, in fact, betray the continent and also the EU.

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