Despite Turkish officials said that talks in Istanbul between Ukraine and Russia were ’more positive than expected,’ both suffering Ukrainians and pro-peace European citizens are still waiting for a peace agreement to be reached. The biggest ever prisoner exchange between the two sides in late May can be considered a significant step in a long peace process, some experts argue, however, this result is quite far from the desired and blessed state of peace. Live updates: Ukraine’s allies call Russian demands unacceptable after first talks in years | CNN
With great power comes great responsibility, as we know. Without arguing the undoubtable fact that Russia attacked Ukraine in 2022, it is worth examining the issue of responsibility of why the two sides failed to reach a breakthrough in the peace process even after Donald Trump’s return to the White House which, meeting the earlier expectations, indeed provides ideal circumstances for concluding a just and lasting peace.
But something has gone wrong, it has become obvious in recent weeks. The three conclusions of the meeting in Istanbul – a prisoner swap, further talks about a presidential meeting, and both sides composing their vision of a future ceasefire – are far from what can be called a real progress. Instead of stopping the bloodshed, both sides prefer using various excuses for avoiding serious talks about concluding peace.
Looking deeply into the facts, such a move – a breakthrough toward peace – would serve Ukraine’s interests in the first place, given that Russia has managed to secure an advantage on the battlefield and its troops are slowly but steadily on the offensive. Against this background, the only reasonable path for Kyiv would be to agree to at least one particular Russian condition which is negotiations first, and a ceasefire second.
Attempts to avoid direct talks between the leaders
Before the talks in Türkiye, even Ukrainian media outlets have referred to a controversy namely that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy insisted on face-to-face talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin despite the fact that in 2022, he signed a decree that ’stated the impossibility of holding negotiations with Russian President Putin,’ as a response to Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine. ’We are ready for a dialogue with Russia, but with a different president of Russia,’ Zelenskyy said at the time. In repsonse, Putin has begun to call Zelenskyy an illegitimate leader of Ukraine in 2024, when after his five-years term of office, Zelenskyy refused to hold presidential elections in his country. Didn’t Zelensky impose a ban on talks with Putin? Not really
Against this background, one can see how challenging it is to bring these two leaders to the same negotiating table. For the same reason, some experts say that the fact that teams from each country were in the same room was a big development in itself.
In this context it is also worth remembering that Zelenskyy said he wanted to negotiate an unconditional 30-day ceasefire in Istanbul as a step toward ending the war – this is what Ukraine and its European allies had pushed for before the talks and, which is in clear contradiction with Putin’s idea of ’negotiations first and a ceasefire second’ as already mentioned above. Zelenskyy also stressed that President Putin should take part in these talks because ’absolutely everything in Russia’ depends on him. Finally, the first direct peace talks since 2022 were held in Istanbul without either Putin or Zelenskyy, in addition, Russia rejected a 30-day ceasefire, insisting on its maximalist demands.
Apart from the leaders themselves and the issue of a preliminary ceasefire, there is always something the two sides use as an excuse to avoid negotiations which is increasingly frustrating for the United States which has repeatedly said that it is ready to step back from its own peacemaking efforts in the absence of a significant progress. In addition to the fact that it is bad news for all peace-loving people that Trump has so far failed to persuade Putin to accept a ceasefire in Ukraine as a first step toward a peace deal, Donald Trump has signaled that the U.S. would not play a mediating role in the discussions. It is important to note that while expressing optimism that ’something big’ would happen soon, Trump left open the possibility that talks would fail. Trump touts Russia-Ukraine talks, even as he steps back – POLITICO
The devil is in the details
Russia is demanding Ukrainian troops abandon five annexed and occupied regions – Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts – as a precondition not for peace, but for a ceasefire and the opening of negotiations. Earlier, Russia promised to present Ukraine with a draft settlement document – a ’memorandum’, with more details below – as soon as the prisoner exchange is completed. Kremlin says work is continuing on Russian draft of peace memorandum | Reuters
Moscow has consistently rejected extended ceasefire proposals, arguing they would give Ukraine time to rearm and regroup at a time of battlefield advances by Russian forces. Russia and Ukraine agree prisoner swap but peace talks fail to make progress | Ukraine | The Guardian
According to Ukraine, the most recent peace proposals hide several aspects that can easily become threats for them. One of these aspect is that the proposals ’create unfinished business’, and if Putin is not defeated, he can attack Ukraine once again, or can try to meddling in Ukrainian politics. An inappropriate peace deal can only create instability and uncertainty while leaving a window widely open for restarting the bloodshed or for severe geopolitical turbulances.
The US asks Kyiv to accept de jure recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and de facto recognition of its occupation of large parts of several oblasts in the country’s east. What would Russia’s peace deal demands really mean for Ukraine? – visualised | Ukraine | The Guardian The US administration is considering ways how to pressure Putin into concessions at the negotiating table. Donald Trump is seriously considering a new round of sanctions against Russia, as his frustration intensifies over Vladimir Putin’s continued military actions in Ukraine and the lack of progress in ceasefire negotiations, according to The Wall Street Journal. Trump Weighs Sanctions Against Russia as Relationship With Putin Sours – WSJ
As stated above, Ukraine has consistently demanded a full 30-day ceasefire before entering substantive negotiations with Russia. Before the talks in Istanbul, Kyiv seemed to be willing to accept a freeze of the frontlines and drop its attempt to join NATO, but only in return for increased military and economic support of the West, and security guarantees that could include European troops on the ground.
’Ukrainians see the EU first of all as an instructional modernisation project and a way to eradicate corruption. NATO is more related to collective security but it does have a strong economic effect.’, the managing director for Europe at the analysts Eurasia Group Mujtaba Rahman believes. What would Russia’s peace deal demands really mean for Ukraine? – visualised | Ukraine | The Guardian
To get out of the hopeless situation he had found himself both politically and on the battlefield, President Zelenskyy said that if Ukraine is not invited to NATO summit, it is a victory over NATO for Putin which can be considered the worst thing he had ever said in his life and which portrayed the Alliance in a highly unfavourable light. As for European troops in Ukraine in the future, this is just another issue that is unlikely to ever happen and is just another stalling tactic on behalf of Ukraine and its Western supporters.
As Ukraine hesitates, Russia attacks
On 27 May, referring to intelligence data President Zelenskyy stated that ’Putin and his entourage do not plan to end the war. There is currently no indication that they are seriously considering peace or diplomacy. On the contrary, there is ample evidence that they are preparing new offensive operations’. ’Russia is counting on this war to continue and that that is, on their part, a blatant disregard for all those around the world who seek peace and are trying to make diplomacy work.’, he added.
’America’s silence, and the silence of others in the world, only encourages Putin,’ Zelenskyy said two days earlier after Russia launched its largest aerial assault targeting Kyiv and other regions with missiles and drones on the last weekend of May. Dozens of people were killed in the attacks across Ukraine, including children, and dozens more people were injured. US ‘silence’ encouraging Putin, says Zelensky, after Russia launches record air assault | CNN
In this particular case, in light of the most intense Russian drone attacks on Ukraine since the start of the war, Zelenskyy’s words about a Russia which does not really engaged in peace efforts have sense. On the other hand, from Russia’s position, this is nothing but a try to force Ukraine to capitulation. From the Ukrainians’ perspective, this is mere bloodshed and destruction, which hits Ukraine and its peaceful people thanks to President Zelenskyy’s unrealistic ideas of restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.
Russia’s ’memorandum’: just another excuse for Kyiv for delaying negotiations
Following up on the meeting in Istanbul on 16 May, Kyiv has been waiting for a ’memorandum’ from Moscow, outlining Russia’s vision for steps toward a ceasefire. Once Russia said that they had finished drafting their ’memorandum’, they also leaked it to the media, before sending it to Kyiv.
According to Reuters, Putin’s conditions for ending the war in Ukraine include a demand that the West pledge in writing to stop enlarging NATO eastwards and lift certain sanctions against Russia. In addition, Russia also wants Ukraine to be neutral. The Russian sources of Reuters claim that, if Putin realizes he is unable to reach a peace deal on his own terms, he will seek to show the Ukrainians and the Europeans by military victories that ’peace tomorrow will be even more painful.’ Exclusive: Putin, for Ukraine peace, wants a pledge to halt NATO enlargement, sources say | Reuters
With the idea of a memorandum with Ukraine, Russia has clearly passed the obligation of the next move to Kyiv, pushing Zelenskyy into a corner while its troops advance in eastern Ukraine. Putin’s apparent commitment to work on a memorandum with Ukraine on future peace talks stopped far short of agreeing to Ukraine’s primary condition, that talks could only begin following a ceasefire, POLITICO writes.
Kyiv is unlikely to accept Moscow’s most recent proposes for the next round of talks
While Ukrainian government officials made angry statements due to Russia delays the promised memorandum, Moscow has made clear not only its conditions for peace but also its own proposal to hold the next round of Russia-Ukraine talks on 2 June in Istanbul.
Given that for Kyiv and its Western supporters, Russian position is clearly unacceptable, the chance of holding new talks with substantial results seems almost nil. ’Only a well-prepared meeting has the potential to produce tangible results’, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on X, suggesting a later official Ukrainian position.
An admission of Zelenskyy is still awaited
The most important step President Zelenskyy should take is to show true willingness to end the war by accepting some painful compromises. He should also admit that what Ukraine has failed to achieve on the battlefield so far in three years of war, it is unlikely to be achieved in the near future. This would not be a spit in his own face but a brave move to take responsibility. Not only those involved in the behind-the-scenes peace efforts but also the suffering people of Ukraine and the whole world are interested in a breakthrough.
Lacking Zelenskyy’s own decision to stop delaying talks, one can hope that, by the end of the day, his Ukrainian and Western aids, bearing in mind Russia’s devastating attacks across Ukraine, the bloodshed in the country and a stalemate-like situation on the battlefield, will wisper softly in his ears: ’You cannot escape responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today.’
As frustrating as it may sound, in practice it means: talks first, and then ceasefire.
