There is nothing new about the idea that the Baltic States are considered US political labs in Europe – safe coutries where new ’recepies’ can be tried. The transatlantic orientation of the Baltic countries has dramatically sharpened in the last couple of years, especially after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022. Forming a pro-American mindset in the Baltic countries has been quite easy as local pro-Western politicians only need to talk a bit about the ’dark Soviet times’, where nobody in these countries wants to return. Soft power can be a very effective tool.
Russia’s war in Ukraine
The war started by Russia against Ukraine in 2022 has even deepened the basic fears of the Baltic countries of Russia, pushing them even closer to the US – which they considered stronger than the EU -, and this shift has become more and more visible in the foreign affairs and security policy of these small countries.
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have all been firm supporters of Ukraine since the start of the aggression of Russia. In addition, as for the political, economic and military support for Ukraine, the Baltics have been closely coordinated both with each other and, with the US.
Increasing focus on security policy and defence issues
Joint military exercises are regularly held in the Baltic states and they also call for permanent stationing of US and German troops. In the Baltic countries, great efforts have been made to set voluntary territorial defence units. Preparing civilians for a potential Russian agression has become one of the major tasks for local authorities. The idea of introducing mandatory military conscription is also on the agenda.
In recent years, the Baltic defence ministeries have been involved in the training of Ukrainian military personnel. Ukraine has not only received weapons and military equipment from the Baltic defence ministeries, but also civilian donors have raised enough money to send drones and various equipment to Kyiv, in order to ensure Ukraine’s victory over Russia. The ideas of both creating a drone coalition and cyber support for Ukraine were born in the Baltics.
All three countries are not only vocal supporters of Ukraine on the battlefields but also remain committed supporters of accepting Ukraine in the EU and NATO. ’Be like the Baltics when it comes to supporting Ukraine!’, this is the message the Baltic capitals keep sending since 2022.
However, there is one thing that should be kept in mind when it comes to the increased interest of the Baltics to defence, namely that everything that has been done in the Baltics in the field of defence and security policy in the last couple of years has all been conducted in close cooperation with the US, Germany and, Ursula von der Leyen.
The Baltic Troika in von der Leyen’s new Commission
This ’priviliged partnerhip’ with Commission President has paid off for the Baltics, considering that despite the population and size of the Baltic countries, all of them managed to get key portfolios in von der Leyen’s Commission in 2024.
Estonia’s Kaja Kallas seems to be the biggest winner as she was nominated as the EU’s High Represantative. The fact that the name of Kallas has also been mentioned just some months before as a possible NATO Secretary General cannot be disregarded. The only reason why the Estonian Prime Minister failed to become the new head of the Alliance was that her outright Russophobia was considered too risky by the allies. Then her friends in the US tried to find another job for her, and the great opportunity was found in one of the EU’s top jobs: High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. According to the concept, in this job, she could continue as the right-hand man for the Commission President.
Turning to the two other Baltic states, Latvia’s former Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis served under Ursula von der leyen as European Commissioner between 2019-2024. Although he was expected to be the new European Commissioner for Defence and Space in 2024 (or, enlargement commissioner), the Latvian candidate was eventually replaced by an even stronger Lithuanian nominee, Andrius Kubilius, who is considered to be even more ’hawkish’. Dombrovskis was eventually compensated by von der Leyen with another portfolio of no less prestigious than defence: he will be the EU’s new economy chief.
According to POLITICO, ’Latvia’s Valdis Dombrovskis, a Commission veteran, secured the economy and productivity, implementation and simplification portfolio, which will play a part in Ukraine’s future reconstruction.’ Rumours can be heard in Brussels saying that a trusted loyalist to von der Leyen Dombrovskis is considered to be a guard dog who will have to keep an eye on other colleagues. From queen to empress: Inside Ursula von der Leyen’s power grab – POLITICO
It also should be added that Ursula von der Leyen eventually decided to give the portfolio of European Commissioner for Enlargement and Recovery of Ukraine to the Slovenian Marta Kos. According to media information, one of the obstacles to Valdis Dombrovskis’s delegation of this portfolio was the too-high concentration of foreign policy powers among representatives of the Baltic States.
Thus, under the command of maestra Ursula von der Leyen, the Great Baltic Troika was completed: the EU’s foreign affairs, its economy and defence issues, including the issue of Ukraine, have all been given to Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian politicians. This operation, brilliantly orchestrated in just a few years, could ensure that with the assistance of von der Leyen, the US could maintain the preferred policies in key areas for years on and, marginalise unwanted voices among the bloc members.
Building a new European defence sector
The approval of the common Defence Industral Strategy (EDIS) has been a key area of focus for the Commission President in 2023-2024. As it subsequently turned out, EDIS has only served as a prelude to the implementation of von der Leyen’s further plans for the defence sector.
As the Baltic countries have virtually no national defence capacities of their own, and building up such a capacity would have been an extremely costly and time-consuming task, a small gap had to be found where the Baltic states – countries loyal to von der Leyen – could enter the upper echelons of European defence policy and even could take over control of European defence affairs. The promotion of the Baltic countries is also good for the Commission President to avoid accusations of preferring Germans. This is the new role of European Commissioner for Defence and Space is all about.
Von der Leyen proposed creating the new job earlier this year in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a break with the EU’s tradition of seeing itself as a project dedicated to peace. ’He will work on developing the European defense union and boosting our investment in capacity,’ she told reporters about the new defence commissioner after announcing the makeup of the new Commission.
’The EU must boost defence production, stock up reserves and continue helping Ukraine win the war. For that we must look for new ways on how to strengthen European defence together with Mss and NATO. Our challenges are wathcing us closely to see if will will succeed or fail.’, von der Leyen’s choice Andrius Kubilius said on X.
In a recent interview, the EU’s new defence commissioner Andrius Kubilius has called for obligatory ammunition stockpiles, telling Financial Times that capitals should be forced to have permanent inventories similar to arrangements for natural gas. It is the best way to scale up the bloc’s undersized arms industry to ready it for war, he said, adding that he had no wish to duplicate the role of NATO.
A note: the space component of Kubilius’ portfolio includes managing the EU’s Galileo and Copernicus satellite programs, and a multi-billion secure internet satellite project. What could be more interesting for the EU’s external partners such as the US…?
Deep ties to Russia – some of them are already revealed and some may have left yet unexposed, just like ties to US
Though the Baltics portray themselves as vocal opponents of the Kremlin, the reality appears more complicated. This time we will highlight just one interesting aspect which can lead to a significant revision of the picture.
It is widely known that the Baltics used to be a really important playground for Russian spies. However, the details of how deeply the Russians infiltrated the Baltic states’ political, decision-making and security structures are less well understood.
The fact that Herman Simm, a top official of the Estonian Ministry of Defence who was arrested in Estonia in 2008, was said to be the most damaging Russian agent ever to NATO, having shared a massive amount of NATO secrets with the Russian intelligence service over decades, may have been forgotten by many. Simm was released on probation in 2019 after serving the biggest part of his 12,5-year prison sentence.
In case you would consider the above example outdated, here is another case. Viacheslav Morozov, a professor of international political theory at the University of Tartu was detained on 3 January 2024 by Estonia’s internal security service. The professor was arrested on espionage charges in a case that shows Russia’s intent to ’orchestrate anti-democratic action’ in Estonia.
Latvia has its own infamous Russian spies, too. The best known of them is a Latvian politician and Member of the European Parliament (2004-2018, 2019-2024), co-founder of the EU Russian Speakers’ Alliance Tatiana Zdanoka. In 2024, she was accused of being a Russian intelligence agent since at least 2004.
Similar spy stories can also be found in Lithuania, even in the very top echelons of the state apparatus. For example, former Prime Minister and President of Lithuania, MEP Rolandas Paksas had to resign for certain allegations concerning his Russian ties. Besides him, several other Lithuanian politicians have been accused of spying for Russia in recent years.
Concerning Lithuania, it should also be mentioned that this is where the CIA ran a secret prison in the 2000s. The facility was known as ’Site Violet’ and operated near Vilnius in 2005-2006. And this takes us back to the introduction, where the Baltic states were described as the United States’ political lab in Europe. In early 2024, Lithuania lost a case in Strasbourg launched by a former prisoner. ’According to the court, he was confined to solitary confinement, subjected to constant foot restraints, and exposed to noise and light, which was standard CIA practice under the secret detainee programme.’
Such unacceptable practices may have been the result of an excessive desire of the Baltics to counterbalance the influence of Moscow. Sadly, in many spheres, Russian influence was just replaced by American hegemony. At the same time, and this should not be left out of consideration, Russian infiltration in these countries continues to be so deep and massive that many pro-Russian actors may have been left unmasked. Little is known about who is who in fact in the Baltic political scene: pieces of information on their factual background and connections both in the West and Russia can lead to some unpleasant surprises in the future.
So, what…?
The members of the Baltic Troika within the Commission – Kallas, Dombrovskis and Kubilius – are now in key positions to shape the EU’s responses to global and regional powers like China, the United States and Russia. Analysts say that with her new team of European Commissioners, Ursula von der Leyen holds more influence than ever and, she would have unfettered control over the EU’s politics. She has set up a structure which guarantees that decisions favourable to her could only be taken in key issues. With the new top EU officials from the Baltics, predominance of pro-war and anti-peace attitudes, the so-called hawkish stance concerning the issue of Ukraine, is also striking in the Commission.
There are three areas in the EU that are key to the bloc’s strategic sovereignty: foreign affairs, economy and defence issues. Von der Leyen has delegated these portfolios to countries with considerable US influence. A coincidence…?
