Emmanuel Todd, the Cambridge-educated French philosopher-historian-sociologist-political scientist is known for his “controversial” or “unorthodox views”. Not completely unfounded thoughts, though, as his 1976 prediction of the fall of the Soviet Union proved.
Now, again, Todd is trying to turn geopolitics on its head. In his views, it would be time for Germany to stand up, take a step back from the USA and make peace in Ukraine. A peace that takes European interests in account.
Global politics is a grand theatre where leaders are often portrayed as superheroes or villains.
Enter Todd with his penchant for contrarian takes and sharp critique. A little like the jesters of medieval courts, he says things others would deem blasphemous or provocative. He, on the other hand, doesn’t fret pulling the rug from under conventional wisdom, for example when it comes to the West’s handling of the war in Ukraine.
Imagine a dinner party where everyone is nodding along politely, agreeing on everything, when suddenly, a voice cuts through the chatter with a bold declaration that leaves the room in stunned silence.
That voice is Emmanuel Todd.
Born into a family of intellectuals, Todd grew up immersed in the kind of highbrow discussions most of us only see in movies. He studied at Sciences Po and earned his doctorate at Cambridge, solidifying his credentials as an academic heavyweight. His methods, just like his thoughts, are often unusual. His prediction of the fall of the Soviet Union was based on the study of birth rates, mortality rates, and other demographic data that most analysts overlooked.
Since then, Todd has been something of a prophet in the wilderness, always ready to offer a perspective that bucks the mainstream narrative.
But Why Should We Care About What Todd Says?
Well, for starters, Todd has a knack for being right, even when everyone else thinks he’s lost the plot.
His predictions about the Soviet Union, and more recently, his assessments of the European Union and Western democracies, have a track record that makes you sit up and take notice.
But it’s not just about being right. It’s about how Todd reaches his conclusions. He doesn’t just crunch numbers; he looks at the big picture—culture, family structures, historical context. It’s like he’s watching the world play chess while everyone else is playing checkers.
And let’s face it, in a world full of echo chambers, Todd’s contrarian views are a breath of fresh air.
Todd’s Take on the Ukraine War: Spoiler Alert—It’s Not Good for the West
In recent interviews, Todd didn’t pull any punches.
He described the United States as being “trapped” in Ukraine, despite all the advanced military technology it has tunneled to Kyiv. Now, the Western media tries to show us that high-tech weapons, trade barriers and different anti-Russian sanctions would give Ukraine an edge.
But Todd sees things differently. According to him, the situation isn’t about technology or quick wins; it’s about endurance. And in this game, he is betting on Russia.
Furthermore, he has concerns about the European interests. He’s not alone in thinking the West may have miscalculated, but he takes it a step further. Todd argues that Russia’s strategy isn’t about a fast conquest but about a slow, grinding war of attrition.
And here’s where Todd really stirs the pot.
He argues that the West has failed to grasp the fundamental logic of Russia’s strategy.
Instead of recognizing that they’re playing a different game, Western leaders have chosen, in Todd’s words, “blindness.” They’ve doubled down on a narrative that casts Vladimir Putin as a rogue actor without considering that this view might be overly simplistic. According to Todd, this refusal to engage with reality could lead to even worse outcomes for Ukraine and the West in the future.
Putin: The Villain or the Hero of His Own Story?
Perhaps one of the most provocative part of Todd’s analysis is his perspective on Putin and his support among the Russian people. Western media often portrays Putin as a tyrant clinging to power through fear and repression. Todd, however, suggests that this narrative misses something important. For many Russians, he argues, the 1990s were a nightmare of economic collapse and social chaos. Under Putin, however, the country has experienced a kind of stability that many Russians appreciate.
Todd points out that since Putin came to power, there have been significant improvements in the quality of life for ordinary Russians—rising standards of living, declining crime rates, and even a drop in infant mortality rates below U.S. levels. In Todd’s view, this has made Putin a symbol of stability, and the West’s constant criticism may have actually bolstered his support at home. Todd even goes so far as to suggest that Western hostility has helped Russia turn inward, strengthening its economy through a protectionist policy that might not have been possible under normal circumstances.
The West’s Self-Inflicted Wounds: Welcome to the Psychocracy
It would be already controversial enough, if Todd’s critique had stopped here.
But he doesn’t stop. He takes aim at what he sees as the real problem: the West itself.
Todd describes the current state of Western leadership as a “psychocracy”—a rule by people with psychological disorders. He’s not exactly mincing words here. He accuses French President Emmanuel Macron of living in a fantasy world, labels British leaders as madmen who’ve lost control of financial markets; and suggests that U.S. President Joe Biden is rapidly declining into dementia.
To Todd, it’s not just that Western leaders are out of touch; it’s that they’re actively driving their countries off a cliff. The decisions they’re making, in his view, are less about rational strategy and more about a kind of collective delusion. He argues that the West is in the process of defeating itself, led by leaders who have lost their grip on reality. It’s a bleak picture, to be sure, but one that Todd insists we need to confront if we want to avoid disaster.
But there is more.
In one of his interviews to the Berliner Zeitung this July, he said nothing less than it was time to Germany to stand up, step back from America and make peace with Russia.
Probably understandably, that article hadn’t been put on front page in German or Western-European mainstream media.
According to his views, the West is in direct conflict with Russia, mainly economically and this economic war makes more harm to Western-Europe than to Moscow.
His fear that this conflict can fasten the degradation of France and Germany, what, on the other hand, will change the spirit and the culture of the EU. Todd summarized that in this moment it is up to Germany as the leading power of Europe take responsibility and step away from the USA and make a peace in Ukraine to support the interest of Europe. “We are all waiting for Berlin to end the tense situation”, said Todd.
Todd had another interesting point.
He claims that the Russians have lost trust in Western political leaderships.
First, because of the European leaders who are seen as mere puppets of the United States.
Secondly, because they see the USA as completely unreliable and unstable partners.
Therefore, Moscow is neither interested in negotiations with Europeans, nor interested in signing a treaty with the Americans.
For them, the end of the operation can only be achieved through a military situation in which their interests are secured, and their future safety is guaranteed.
Therefore, Europeans could agree to peace in Ukraine, it would be in their interest. However, it would be harmful for the Americans. If the Russians achieve their goals in Ukraine, America will be defeated and this could potentially lead to the fastened deterrioration of the US lead hegemonic world order.
Conclusion: Agree or Disagree, Todd Makes Us Think
Whether you love him or hate him, Emmanuel Todd is a thinker who forces us to question our assumptions.
His views on the Ukraine war, Western leadership, and global politics might be controversial, but they’re also a reminder that sometimes the most valuable insights come from those who refuse to toe the line.
Todd challenges us to look beyond the easy narratives and consider the deeper forces at play. And in a world where so much of the debate is superficial, that’s something we could all use a little more of.
So, while one must not agree with everything Todd says, but it is important that we stop and start to question every assumption that guides European involvement in Ukraine or everywhere else in the world: what is the real long term European interest.
