The pictures of gas bubbling up to the surface of the Baltic Sea had barely appeared on the screens, when the first claims appeared about Russia’s involvement in the “major sabotage action” against the Nord Stream I and II pipelines.
CNN reported that European security officials observed Russian Navy support ships nearby the positions where the leaks later occurred.
Finnish officials hinted at the similarities between the incident and the double-explosions on a North Ossetian pipeline.
On September 29, 2022, NATO formally declared the event a “sabotage” and claimed that it would be “prepared to defend its infrastructure from attacks”, a not-so-veiled hint at Russia.
Not even the suspected involvement of Ukrainians or the fact that a Polish port was used by the supposed perpetrators could deter the Russia-hawk majority, no matter that Russia (and Germany, of course) was the country that lost the most with the loss of those pipelines: an annual revenue measuring billions of dollars, an infrastructure project that cost a fortune and the exact leverage Washington, Poland, the Baltic states and Ukraine were so afraid of.
While Kyiv gained a lot.
Ukraine, quite naturally, has repeatedly denied involvement. President Zelensky himself called the idea an “amusing conspiracy theory”.
Experts were quick to line up and declare that they couldn’t see “the motivation” on Washington’s or Kyiv’s side for such an atrocious act against European gas security.
The few who voiced doubts about Russia standing behind the attack were quickly silenced.
It was only later, in late-2023 that people first started to admit that it wasn’t in Moscow’s best interest, not even as a “false flag” operation. The Wall Street Journal, Der Spiegel and The New York Times, but also Dutch public broadcaster NOS, all published bits and pieces of information, all pointing at Ukraine.
In August 2023, Der Spiegel reported that German authorities believed that the Russian navy might have tried to protect the pipelines, patrolling around the site, because they might have received information on a possible sabotage plan. Swedish and Danish investigations into possible Russian involvement were dropped due to lack of sufficient evidence.
The latest twist came about a year after that.
In an article full of shocking revelations, The Wall Street Journal reported on August 14, 2024, about a “drunken evening” and a “rented yacht”, “businessmen” financing the plan and alike, sharing incredible details about the planning and execution of the explosions.
Claiming that both Dutch and American intelligence agencies were aware of the plan months in advance.
And that it was Ukraine.
Well, a crew of six Ukrainian-backed divers, renting a charter boat from Germany. Ukrainian defence officials were either actively participating or were very familiar with the plans. Originally, the conspirators even had the backing of President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Ukraine quickly tried to mitigate the consequences, claiming that President Zelensky called for a halt in the project (well, did so after being asked by the CIA) and it was only his then-army chief Valeriy Zaluzhniy (now ambassador in London), who went rouge and carried out the plan, no matter what.
An understandable reaction, as the opposite could cause a serious rift in Kyiv’s relations with Berlin. According to reports, it costs Germany $1 million per day, to find alternative energy sources, after all. Yet, Berlin became the second-biggest single country supporting Ukraine’s fight.
For now, Berlin claims that the investigation into the attack would not impact Germany’s relationship with Ukraine, “this matter is entirely independent of our commitment to supporting Ukraine”.
Most of those involved (Washington or Amsterdam, for that matter) have refused to comment on the news.
But, not having other options, a few Russia hawks went on an offensive after the latest report from The Wall Street Journal.
Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk for example, said that “the initiators of the gas pipeline project should apologize and keep quiet”, referring to German accusations that the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines must have had Poland’s support.
His deputies and closest aides, like Krzysztof Gawkowski deputy prime minister and minister of digital affairs, have all “strongly denied” reports that Poland and Ukraine were acting together.
But Poland is (just like Ukraine) probably not interested in finding out the truth, after all.
Warsaw has repeatedly complained to Berlin about the pipelines, claiming that it hurt its security interests. Neither were they happy with intra-EU issues (think rule of law proceedings) or the settlement of historical grievances (think a $1.3 trillion compensation request for WWII damages). Berlin’s cozy relations with Moscow were a thorn in Warsaw’s side, as well.
Already in January, The Wall Street Journal claimed that Poland not only refused to turn over to German authorities the testimonies of eyewitnesses who encountered the yacht’s crew, but also withheld CCTV footage from the port of Kolobrzeg. And they hindered the German investigation in every possible way.
And just recently, Polish authorities failed to comply with a European arrest warrant issued by German authorities for a Ukrainian national, “Vladimir/Volodymyr Z” (not President Zelensky, but a diving instructor who just until July has lived in Warsaw).
A spokeswoman for the prosecutor’s office in Warsaw, Anna Adamiak admitted that Polish authorities had received the warrant, but the suspect could leave the country (to Ukraine), because “he was not on a database of wanted people”.
A mere administrative failure, what else.
Of course, now, with all fingers pointing at Ukraine, probably nobody expects NATO to carry on with its 2022 promise to defend its infrastructure against everyone.
