Many experts agree that, with the inauguration of Donald Trump on 20 January for his second term as U.S. President, major changes in the U.S.-EU relations have begun. Some also warn that, this new situation is likely to become a real problem for Europe. Some talking heads ironically suggest that the time has come for the EU to grow up.
When analysing the new dinamics of the transatlantic relations, for the first time in history, it is important to make a distinction between the EU’s central bodies’ relations – in particular that of the Commission – with the U.S., and the ties between Member States and President Trump. As no such a huge difference has ever been seen before between these two things, including Trump’s first presidency between 2016 and 2020, the current situation is not only somewhat unique but it also gives room for speculation about who and what will really shape the EU’s relations with Washington?
Concerning this very complex issue, two major questions arise that lead to some additional ones.
1) Will Trump’s political path for the coming years be a problem for all EU Member States? What about those Member States that have already managed to establish close, even friendly relations with the new U.S. President?
a) Will these excellent personal ties between the leaders of some Member States and Trump have any positive effect on the bilateral relations of these countries with the U.S.?
b) Should the EU give more powers to those national leaders who maintain good relation with Trump and, may be able to make an advantage for the EU as a whole?
c) Is it enough to be a Trumpist to succeed?
2) Who can have a say in shaping the EU’s new transatlantic course?
a) Will the traditional top EU players such as the Commission President and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy continue to be the primary negotiating partners?
b) Is it possible to see a shift from the central institutions to the Member States in terms of shaping transatlantic relations? Would that be an effective strategy?
c) Can such a shift from central bodies to Member States be irreversible? Does this mean a definitive change in traditional decision-making roles, which may result in a profound reform of the EU?
With all these open questions kept in mind, one thing should be stressed namely that, in EU-U.S. terms, there is no other leader in EU with worse prospects than European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, whose record with Donald Trump is highly controversial. Trump shows himself a pragmatic leader: his personality and moves suggest that he is ready to talk to whomever he feel personal chemistry and considers useful enough. The framework of his political credo ’Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) is quite flexible.
As things stand, it seems that in case von der Leyen wants to achieve real results in the EU-U.S. relations, she herself, somewhat unusually, should take a back seat, while giving more space to national leaders such as Georgia Meloni, Emmanuel Macron and, paradoxically, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán who has faced von der Leyen’s sharp criticism for years, to the point that in 2024, significant EU funds have become inaccessible to Hungary, not to mention the fact that with the active guidance of Commission President von der Leyen, Orbán has been treated as a pariah in the EU’s mainstream political circles. However, all this could not really harm the reputation of the EU’s black sheep, who, just like Meloni, was invited by Trump to Florida weeks before 20 January, to discuss, among other issues, the war in Ukraine… Later on, only Meloni attended the official inauguration ceremony.
It should be noted that despite the group of so-called ’Trump whisperers’ in the EU is pretty well known and even though there are many issues to be resolved, no European leader has yet been named to take the lead in the new transatlantic relations.
Like the saying goes when it rains it pours. As for the new nature of transatlantic relations it means that anyone who engages in talks with Trump should also take Elon Musk into consideration, as the American billionaire seems to be an integral part of the eclectic Trump desing.
At this point, it is worth having another look at the imaginary map of Europe, depicting those EU leaders who do not see Musk’s statements as interference in domestic affairs, instead would be ready to work with him. Here again, we need to mention the abovementioned two politicians as both Meloni and Orbán were among the early birds who had talks with Elon Musk in Mar-a-Lago prior to Trump’s inauguration.
From Europe’s perspective, Trump’s return to the White House is far from disastrous, contrary to some politicians’ and journalists’ claims. Just think of the war in Ukraine. Is that really such a huge problem if, some EU countries, in line with Trump, give priority to ending the war as soon as possible…? No matter if they are genuine peacemakers or they just recognised in time that, with Trump’s second presidential term, peace is becoming more ’fashionable’ than war.
Although the question whether privileged personal relations with Trump could be an advantage for the EU as a whole is still an open one, one thing can be stated without hesitation: the EU’s communication with Trump will likely to be more effective through these national leaders than it would be with von der Leyen, who, as a strong supporter of the Biden administration, was simply shocked by Trump’s landslide victory in the US presidential election last November.
If the EU wants to effectively prevent a trade war with America, the lead should not be given to von der Leyen, but, in an unorthodox way, rather to those leaders of the Member States who seem to be capable of establishing a constructive dialogue with Trump and his new team, including Musk.
In this race, Georgia Meloni seems to be the winner. Emmanuel Macron is busy with domestic politics. In Germany, also as a result of failed domestic policies, voters have lost confidence in the ruling elite and are about to elect new leaders. To this end, Germany, once the driving force of the EU and a major political power, is not even being considered as a Member State capable of achieving the most progress in a fruitful dialogue with Trump.
Funnily enough, there is a growing number of top politicians on the European political scene who are labelled as ’Trumpists’ and believed to be capable to talk with Trump. More interestingly, as ’Trumpism’ is becoming the most fashionable and profitable political view in Europe, new side effects and new political phenomena can also be observed.
One of them is a clear shift: the so-called old political mainstream is swiftly becoming marginalised in international dialogue, despite the old elite seems to be ready to borrow certain guidelines and slogans in areas such as migration from the far right in order to keep power.
As a straight aftermath of 20 January, a new European mainstream is emerging. In the clash of the old and the new European elites, Trumpism could be the decisive factor.
Under the new circumstances of a rapidly changing world, where America’s billionaire Elon Musk is gaining a foreign policy role, European Commission President von der Leyen is not the only top official in the EU who is likely to have bad days – the Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas, also seems to be losing in this power game. Power cannot be taken for granted and it does not last forever. Moreover, sometimes, for the benefit of the community as a whole, it is wiser to step back and let others take control. This is the lesson today for all club members in the EU’s old elite club.
To survive and continue to prosper, Europe needs to change, or, from U.S. perspective, grow up. As far as transatlantic relations are concerned, things will definitely not be ’business as usual’.
